Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Central Connecticut State Blue Devils, while the market favors Sacred Heart Pioneers (58%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Sacred Heart Pioneers (-4.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Central Connecticut State Blue Devils (75%) · Central Connecticut State Blue Devils at 42¢ · $360 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Central Connecticut State Blue Devils
4
Central Connecticut State Blue Devils 75%
1 arb excluded
$359.72
-$0.8
43.6¢ → 42¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidCentral Connecticut State Blue Devils at 42%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Sacred Heart Pioneers 58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Central Connecticut State Blue Devils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Sacred Heart Pioneersavg 50¢ | $1.2K | $181.92 | +$1.92 | 82% 96-21 (117) |
| └ Sacred Heart Pioneers leg | Sacred Heart Pioneersavg 50¢ | $100 | $116 | +$16 | |
| └ Central Connecticut State Blue Devils leg | Central Connecticut State Blue Devilsavg 50¢ | $80.39 | $65.92 | -$14.08 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Central Connecticut State Blue Devilsavg 41¢ | $75.9 | $75.9 | +$0 | 51% 2691-2616 (5307) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Sacred Heart Pioneersavg 51¢ | $53.55 | $60.9 | +$7.35 | 57% 3458-2629 (6087) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Central Connecticut State Blue Devilsavg 49¢ | $49 | $34.85 | -$7.4 | 52% 836-757 (1593) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Central Connecticut State Blue Devilsavg 46¢ | $6.9 | $6.15 | -$0.75 | 38% 507-819 (1326) |
Invested
$1,200
Value
$181.92
PnL
+$1.92
Record
82%
96-21 (117)
Both legs:
Invested
$75.9
Value
$75.9
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
2691-2616 (5307)
Invested
$53.55
Value
$60.9
PnL
+$7.35
Record
57%
3458-2629 (6087)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$49
Value
$34.85
PnL
-$7.4
Record
52%
836-757 (1593)
Invested
$6.9
Value
$6.15
PnL
-$0.75
Record
38%
507-819 (1326)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
overtimemarkets.xyz-singles
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Flaznorp
CTRCentral Connecticut State Blue Devils — $75.9
HomeRunHazard
Sacred Heart Pioneers — $60.9
VeryLucky888
CTRCentral Connecticut State Blue Devils — $34.85
ameisgoat11
CTRCentral Connecticut State Blue Devils — $6.15