Canisius Golden Griffins vs. Brown Bears: O/U 138.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 71¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 43%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
-$54.61
48¢ → 71¢
+48% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 71%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Overavg 49¢ | $999.6 | $897.6 | -$102 | 2% 8-503 (511) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Underavg 51¢ | $610.93 | $646.87 | +$35.94 | 17% 50-253 (303) |
HI hi774c | Overavg 44¢ | $225.57 | $235.96 | +$10.39 | 19% 127-534 (661) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $400 | $196 | -$4 | 82% 97-22 (119) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50¢ | $100 | $108 | +$8 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50¢ | $100 | $88 | -$12 | |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $22.7 | $24.52 | +$1.82 | 56% 312-248 (560) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $4.7 | $5 | +$0.3 | 38% 509-821 (1330) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Underavg 56.9¢ | $5.36 | $3.15 | -$2.21 | 42% 306-427 (733) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $1.85 | $3 | +$1.15 | 51% 2763-2694 (5457) |
Invested
$999.6
Value
$897.6
PnL
-$102
Record
2%
8-503 (511)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$610.93
Value
$646.87
PnL
+$35.94
Record
17%
50-253 (303)
Invested
$225.57
Value
$235.96
PnL
+$10.39
Record
19%
127-534 (661)
Invested
$400
Value
$196
PnL
-$4
Record
82%
97-22 (119)
Both legs:
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$22.7
Value
$24.52
PnL
+$1.82
Record
56%
312-248 (560)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.3
Record
38%
509-821 (1330)
Invested
$5.36
Value
$3.15
PnL
-$2.21
Record
42%
306-427 (733)
Invested
$1.85
Value
$3
PnL
+$1.15
Record
51%
2763-2694 (5457)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.