Campbell Fighting Camels vs. Western Michigan Broncos: O/U 149.5
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 74¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 25%
$1.3K
-$11.92
57.7¢ → 74¢
+28% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 74%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 55.9¢ | $538.85 | $559.51 | +$20.66 | 54% 19973-16852 (36825) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Underavg 49¢ | $320.15 | $297.12 | -$23.03 | 56% 8753-6943 (15696) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 65¢ | $155.37 | $176.89 | +$21.51 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Underavg 45.5¢ | $91 | $91 | +$0 | 53% 14327-12638 (26965) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 35¢ | $97.66 | $72.55 | -$25.11 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 47.5¢ | $70.25 | $67.23 | -$3.02 | 59% 52363-37089 (89452) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 38.2¢ | $42.7 | $40.28 | -$2.42 | 48% 70249-75962 (146211) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 50.5¢ | $5.05 | $4.55 | -$0.5 | 52% 9497-8605 (18102) |
Invested
$538.85
Value
$559.51
PnL
+$20.66
Record
54%
19973-16852 (36825)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$320.15
Value
$297.12
PnL
-$23.03
Record
56%
8753-6943 (15696)
Invested
$155.37
Value
$176.89
PnL
+$21.51
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
Invested
$91
Value
$91
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
14327-12638 (26965)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$97.66
Value
$72.55
PnL
-$25.11
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$70.25
Value
$67.23
PnL
-$3.02
Record
59%
52363-37089 (89452)
Invested
$42.7
Value
$40.28
PnL
-$2.42
Record
48%
70249-75962 (146211)
Invested
$5.05
Value
$4.55
PnL
-$0.5
Record
52%
9497-8605 (18102)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.