Spread: East Tennessee State Buccaneers (-5.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Campbell Fighting Camels (50%) · Campbell Fighting Camels at 51¢ · $574 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Campbell Fighting Camels
4
Campbell Fighting Camels 50%
1 arb excluded
$573.89
$2.52
50¢ → 51¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidCampbell Fighting Camels at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Campbell Fighting Camels. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HI hi774c | Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 50¢ | $392.5 | $392.5 | +$0 | 14% 76-472 (548) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 53¢ | $99.57 | $99.07 | -$0.5 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
| └ Campbell Fighting Camels leg | Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 53¢ | $58.25 | $55 | -$3.25 | |
| └ East Tennessee State Buccaneers leg | East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 45¢ | $41.32 | $44.07 | +$2.75 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 46.1¢ | $65 | $67.72 | +$2.72 | 51% 1853-1805 (3658) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 48¢ | $9.6 | $9.6 | +$0 | 48% 1381-1515 (2896) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 52¢ | $5.2 | $5 | -$0.2 | 32% 297-622 (919) |
Invested
$392.5
Value
$392.5
PnL
+$0
Record
14%
76-472 (548)
Invested
$99.57
Value
$99.07
PnL
-$0.5
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Both legs:
Invested
$65
Value
$67.72
PnL
+$2.72
Record
51%
1853-1805 (3658)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$9.6
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
1381-1515 (2896)
Invested
$5.2
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.2
Record
32%
297-622 (919)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.