Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold East Tennessee State Buccaneers, while the market favors Campbell Fighting Camels (55%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Campbell Fighting Camels vs. East Tennessee State Buccaneers

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold East Tennessee State Buccaneers (75%) · East Tennessee State Buccaneers at 46¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 12

Campbell Fighting Camels55¢East Tennessee State Buccaneers45¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Consensus Traders

East Tennessee State Buccaneers 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$39.11

Smart Money Entry

64.2¢ → 45.5¢

-29% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidEast Tennessee State Buccaneers at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Campbell Fighting Camels 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Campbell Fighting Camels55%

East Tennessee State Buccaneers46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

East Tennessee State Buccaneers6 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares4,993

Combined PnL+$9.76

Campbell Fighting Camels2 traders

Total Value$717.94

Total Shares1,748

Combined PnL+$29.35

East Tennessee State Buccaneers — 75%Campbell Fighting Camels — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 64.4¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$6.38	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 65¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$2.35	46% 292-339 (631)
└ East Tennessee State Buccaneers leg	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 65¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$64.32
└ Campbell Fighting Camels leg	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 34.7¢	$562.27	$624.24	+$61.97
HI hi774c	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 32¢	$687.11	$716.44	+$29.33	14% 77-472 (549)
0xheavy888CTR	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 64.7¢	$646.02	$644.36	-$1.66	55% 205-165 (370)
VeryLucky888CTR	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 64¢	$160	$129	+$3	52% 490-447 (937)
SU suitcase6628CTR	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 57¢	$92.2	$106.5	+$14.3	64% 275-156 (431)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 63¢	$82.18	$69.79	-$12.39	51% 3720-3550 (7270)
RN1CTR<$100	East Tennessee State Buccaneersavg 62¢	$16.32	$16.45	+$0.13	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
PA Pan9X<$100	Campbell Fighting Camelsavg 33¢	$1.48	$1.5	+$0.02	49% 684-724 (1408)

HomeRunHazardCTR

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$2,343.81

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$6.38

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

SnakeBallARB<$100

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$1,760.11

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$2.35

Record

46%

292-339 (631)

Both legs:

East Tennessee State Buccaneers$1,197.8465¢-$64.32

Campbell Fighting Camels$562.2734.7¢+$61.97

hi774c

Campbell Fighting Camels

Invested

$687.11

Value

$716.44

PnL

+$29.33

Record

14%

77-472 (549)

0xheavy888CTR

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$646.02

Value

$644.36

PnL

-$1.66

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

VeryLucky888CTR

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$160

Value

$129

PnL

+$3

Record

52%

490-447 (937)

suitcase6628CTR

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$92.2

Value

$106.5

PnL

+$14.3

Record

64%

275-156 (431)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$82.18

Value

$69.79

PnL

-$12.39

Record

51%

3720-3550 (7270)

RN1CTR<$100

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Invested

$16.32

Value

$16.45

PnL

+$0.13

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

Pan9X<$100

Campbell Fighting Camels

Invested

$1.48

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

Research grade

AvoidEast Tennessee State Buccaneers at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Campbell Fighting Camels 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that East Tennessee State Buccaneers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.