Bradley Braves vs. George Mason Patriots: O/U 130.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 51¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$1.56

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 50.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,787

Combined PnL+$93.73

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,825

Combined PnL-$92.17

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2	Underavg 49¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$89.75	45% 260-317 (577)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 51¢	$1.0K	$928.87	-$77.47	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
TO tomb2456	Underavg 50¢	$390.75	$394.66	+$3.91	53% 37-33 (70)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 50¢	$280.6	$277.79	-$2.81	49% 3815-3978 (7793)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Overavg 50¢	$200	$93	-$7	69% 132-60 (192)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$50	$46.5	-$3.5	53% 1348-1174 (2522)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$28.06	$27.78	-$0.28	48% 2070-2232 (4302)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$16	$14.88	-$1.12	54% 286-244 (530)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.68	+$0.08	41% 693-1010 (1703)

Forecastication2

Under

Invested

$1,030.93

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$89.75

Record

45%

260-317 (577)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$1,006.33

Value

$928.87

PnL

-$77.47

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

tomb2456

Under

Invested

$390.75

Value

$394.66

PnL

+$3.91

Record

53%

37-33 (70)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$280.6

Value

$277.79

PnL

-$2.81

Record

49%

3815-3978 (7793)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$93

PnL

-$7

Record

69%

132-60 (192)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50

Value

$46.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

53%

1348-1174 (2522)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.06

Value

$27.78

PnL

-$0.28

Record

48%

2070-2232 (4302)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16

Value

$14.88

PnL

-$1.12

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.08

Record

41%

693-1010 (1703)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.