Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold George Mason Patriots, while the market favors Bradley Braves (75%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: George Mason Patriots (-12.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold George Mason Patriots (83%) · George Mason Patriots at 26¢ · $192 held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
George Mason Patriots
6
George Mason Patriots 83%
$191.61
-$41.87
45.2¢ → 25.5¢
-44% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidGeorge Mason Patriots at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Bradley Braves 75%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+8 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on George Mason Patriots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | George Mason Patriotsavg 47¢ | $82.11 | $65.72 | -$16.39 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | George Mason Patriotsavg 48.2¢ | $56.82 | $46.39 | -$10.43 | 54% 1417-1228 (2645) |
QW qWOprt7CTR<$100 | George Mason Patriotsavg 39.3¢ | $50 | $36.89 | -$13.11 | 0% 0-81 (81) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Bradley Bravesavg 64¢ | $27.52 | $27.52 | +$0 | 49% 3959-4107 (8066) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | George Mason Patriotsavg 48¢ | $14.53 | $13.14 | -$1.4 | 48% 3239-3552 (6791) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | George Mason Patriotsavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $1.97 | -$0.53 | 41% 702-1012 (1714) |
Invested
$82.11
Value
$65.72
PnL
-$16.39
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$56.82
Value
$46.39
PnL
-$10.43
Record
54%
1417-1228 (2645)
Invested
$50
Value
$36.89
PnL
-$13.11
Record
0%
0-81 (81)
Invested
$27.52
Value
$27.52
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
3959-4107 (8066)
Invested
$14.53
Value
$13.14
PnL
-$1.4
Record
48%
3239-3552 (6791)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$1.97
PnL
-$0.53
Record
41%
702-1012 (1714)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.