Spread: George Mason Patriots (-11.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold George Mason Patriots (20%) · George Mason Patriots at 57¢ · $504 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
George Mason Patriots
5
George Mason Patriots 20%
$503.77
-$6.41
Research grade
AvoidGeorge Mason Patriots at 57%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IC ic4cream | George Mason Patriotsavg 52.4¢ | $280 | $264.69 | -$15.31 | 6% 30-460 (490) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Bradley Bravesavg 47.4¢ | $111.49 | $118.8 | +$7.3 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
BI biying99999CTR<$100 | Bradley Bravesavg 47.9¢ | $71.25 | $75.17 | +$3.92 | 35% 103-192 (295) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Bradley Bravesavg 47.4¢ | $98.34 | $44.07 | -$2.47 | 53% 1335-1164 (2499) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Bradley Bravesavg 43¢ | $0.89 | $1.05 | +$0.16 | 49% 3800-3964 (7764) |
Invested
$280
Value
$264.69
PnL
-$15.31
Record
6%
30-460 (490)
Invested
$111.49
Value
$118.8
PnL
+$7.3
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
Invested
$71.25
Value
$75.17
PnL
+$3.92
Record
35%
103-192 (295)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$98.34
Value
$44.07
PnL
-$2.47
Record
53%
1335-1164 (2499)
Invested
$0.89
Value
$1.05
PnL
+$0.16
Record
49%
3800-3964 (7764)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.