Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Bradley Braves vs. Davidson Wildcats: O/U 138.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (86%) · Over at 46¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 86%
$1.9K
-$30.76
49.2¢ → 46¢
-7% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 49.4¢ | $979.52 | $907.6 | -$53.42 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
IC ic4cream | Underavg 51¢ | $703.7 | $745.09 | +$41.39 | 1% 4-440 (444) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Overavg 48.8¢ | $194.14 | $180.88 | -$13.27 | 57% 103-79 (182) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $48 | $45.5 | -$2.5 | 48% 218-232 (450) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $27.44 | $25.48 | -$1.96 | 50% 1387-1404 (2791) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $9.49 | $8.81 | -$0.68 | 15% 16-94 (110) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $6.28 | $5.95 | -$0.33 | 30% 160-377 (537) |
Invested
$979.52
Value
$907.6
PnL
-$53.42
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$703.7
Value
$745.09
PnL
+$41.39
Record
1%
4-440 (444)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$194.14
Value
$180.88
PnL
-$13.27
Record
57%
103-79 (182)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$48
Value
$45.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
48%
218-232 (450)
Invested
$27.44
Value
$25.48
PnL
-$1.96
Record
50%
1387-1404 (2791)
Invested
$9.49
Value
$8.81
PnL
-$0.68
Record
15%
16-94 (110)
Invested
$6.28
Value
$5.95
PnL
-$0.33
Record
30%
160-377 (537)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.