Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bradley Braves, while the market favors Coppin State Eagles (63%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Bradley Braves (-10.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Bradley Braves (40%) · Bradley Braves at 37¢ · $473 held · ended Nov 12

Bradley Braves37¢Coppin State Eagles63¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bradley Braves

Consensus Traders

Bradley Braves 40%

Total Value

$472.51

Combined PnL

-$2.02

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 37¢

-35% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidBradley Braves at 37%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bradley Braves

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Coppin State Eagles 63%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bradley Braves37%

Coppin State Eagles63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bradley Braves4 traders

Total Value$406.54

Total Shares678

Combined PnL+$19.76

Coppin State Eagles6 traders

Total Value$65.97

Total Shares183

Combined PnL-$21.79

Bradley Braves — 40%Coppin State Eagles — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Bradley Braves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCoppin State Eagles 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Coppin State Eagles 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Bradley Bravesavg 58¢	$332.08	$366.61	+$34.53	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
38 38791873984189<$100	Coppin State Eaglesavg 46¢	$49.85	$39.01	-$10.84	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Bradley Bravesavg 56.4¢	$31.51	$21.21	-$10.3	49% 1386-1434 (2820)
RN1<$100	Coppin State Eaglesavg 59¢	$24.35	$14.86	-$9.49	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Bradley Bravesavg 41¢	$14.87	$13.78	-$1.09	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Bradley Bravesavg 64¢	$8.32	$4.94	-$3.38	43% 400-536 (936)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Coppin State Eaglesavg 36¢	$4.68	$4.68	+$0	44% 177-221 (398)
0xheavy888<$100	Coppin State Eaglesavg 46¢	$4.85	$3.79	-$1.05	56% 312-248 (560)
PA Pan9X<$100	Coppin State Eaglesavg 40¢	$2.03	$1.82	-$0.2	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Coppin State Eaglesavg 40¢	$2	$1.8	-$0.2	38% 509-821 (1330)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Bradley Braves

Invested

$332.08

Value

$366.61

PnL

+$34.53

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

38791873984189<$100

Coppin State Eagles

Invested

$49.85

Value

$39.01

PnL

-$10.84

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Bradley Braves

Invested

$31.51

Value

$21.21

PnL

-$10.3

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

RN1<$100

Coppin State Eagles

Invested

$24.35

Value

$14.86

PnL

-$9.49

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Bradley Braves

Invested

$14.87

Value

$13.78

PnL

-$1.09

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

smithagentCTR<$100

Bradley Braves

Invested

$8.32

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$3.38

Record

43%

400-536 (936)

Forecastication2<$100

Coppin State Eagles

Invested

$4.68

Value

$4.68

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

177-221 (398)

0xheavy888<$100

Coppin State Eagles

Invested

$4.85

Value

$3.79

PnL

-$1.05

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

Pan9X<$100

Coppin State Eagles

Invested

$2.03

Value

$1.82

PnL

-$0.2

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

ameisgoat11<$100

Coppin State Eagles

Invested

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

38%

509-821 (1330)

Research grade

AvoidBradley Braves at 37%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Bradley Braves

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Coppin State Eagles 63%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Bradley Braves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCoppin State Eagles 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Coppin State Eagles 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bradley Braves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.