Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bowling Green Falcons, while the market favors Georgia State Panthers (60%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Bowling Green Falcons vs. Georgia State Panthers
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bowling Green Falcons (20%) · Bowling Green Falcons at 41¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Bowling Green Falcons
5
Bowling Green Falcons 20%
$10.2K
-$158.87
Research grade
AvoidBowling Green Falcons at 41%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia State Panthers 60%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Bowling Green Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CyberScore.liveCTR | Bowling Green Falconsavg 42.2¢ | $5.9K | $5.6K | -$312.96 | 46% 410-482 (892) |
FL Flaznorp | Georgia State Panthersavg 57.3¢ | $4.3K | $2.5K | +$94.09 | 51% 17613-16616 (34229) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Georgia State Panthersavg 57¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$60 | 47% 2622-2922 (5544) |
38 38791873984189 | Georgia State Panthersavg 59.5¢ | $350 | $208.25 | +$0 | 47% 13002-14566 (27568) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | Georgia State Panthersavg 59¢ | $59 | $59 | +$0 | 54% 11662-10126 (21788) |
CyberScore.liveCTRInvested
$5,894.35
Value
$5.6K
PnL
-$312.96
Record
46%
410-482 (892)
Invested
$4,266.46
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$94.09
Record
51%
17613-16616 (34229)
Invested
$1,710
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$60
Record
47%
2622-2922 (5544)
Invested
$350
Value
$208.25
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
13002-14566 (27568)
Invested
$59
Value
$59
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
11662-10126 (21788)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.