Boston Terriers vs. Brown Bears

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Brown Bears (64%) · Brown Bears at 76¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 7

Boston Terriers24¢Brown Bears76¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Brown Bears

Consensus Traders

Brown Bears 64%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.6K

Combined PnL

-$666.27

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 76¢

+39% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidBrown Bears at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Brown Bears

7 of 11 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Boston Terriers24%

Brown Bears76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Brown Bears7 traders

Total Value$11.5K

Total Shares17,479

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Boston Terriers4 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares14,442

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Brown Bears — 64%Boston Terriers — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Brown Bears. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBoston Terriers 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrBrown Bears 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedBrown Bears 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Brown Bears 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115	Brown Bearsavg 55.1¢	$4.9K	$7.4K	+$1.0K	44% 72-92 (164)
nigiri99CTR	Boston Terriersavg 46.2¢	$6.5K	$4.8K	$-1.7K	46% 8703-10373 (19076)
FO forecastication4	Brown Bearsavg 52¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$131.1	50% 1396-1400 (2796)
FaroeseNationalist	Brown Bearsavg 57.2¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$115.62	49% 575-592 (1167)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Boston Terriersavg 44.9¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$205.66	51% 26597-25202 (51799)
└ Brown Bears leg	Brown Bearsavg 52¢	$429	$614.63	+$185.63
└ Boston Terriers leg	Boston Terriersavg 44.9¢	$906.4	$515.11	-$391.29
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Boston Terriersavg 45.1¢	$1.0K	$818.82	-$227.54	54% 18312-15411 (33723)
└ Boston Terriers leg	Boston Terriersavg 45.1¢	$859.57	$572.11	-$287.46
└ Brown Bears leg	Brown Bearsavg 53¢	$186.79	$246.71	+$59.91
0xheavy888	Brown Bearsavg 53¢	$666	$369.63	+$16.65	56% 8126-6440 (14566)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Brown Bearsavg 56¢	$336	$312	-$24	51% 1999-1933 (3932)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Boston Terriersavg 42.5¢	$436.79	$237.16	-$49.68	48% 62002-66846 (128848)
└ Brown Bears leg	Brown Bearsavg 63.1¢	$118.06	$142.12	+$24.06
└ Boston Terriers leg	Boston Terriersavg 42.5¢	$168.3	$95.04	-$73.74
RN1	Brown Bearsavg 53¢	$127.2	$181.2	+$54	53% 61880-54166 (116046)
SE sentrioCTR	Boston Terriersavg 45¢	$107.28	$104.89	-$2.38	50% 26188-25839 (52027)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Boston Terriersavg 29¢	$42.47	$33.68	-$8.79	53% 24089-21161 (45250)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Boston Terriersavg 38.2¢	$44.31	$17.97	-$2.58	54% 10159-8530 (18689)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Brown Bearsavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.75	+$0.13	52% 8872-8054 (16926)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115

Brown Bears

Invested

$4,874.06

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

44%

72-92 (164)

nigiri99CTR

Boston Terriers

Invested

$6,477.19

Value

$4.8K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

46%

8703-10373 (19076)

forecastication4

Brown Bears

Invested

$1,947.79

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$131.1

Record

50%

1396-1400 (2796)

FaroeseNationalist

Brown Bears

Invested

$1,271.06

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$115.62

Record

49%

575-592 (1167)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Boston Terriers

Invested

$1,335.4

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$205.66

Record

51%

26597-25202 (51799)

Both legs:

Brown Bears$42952¢+$185.63

Boston Terriers$906.444.9¢-$391.29

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Boston Terriers

Invested

$1,046.36

Value

$818.82

PnL

-$227.54

Record

54%

18312-15411 (33723)

Both legs:

Boston Terriers$859.5745.1¢-$287.46

Brown Bears$186.7953¢+$59.91

0xheavy888

Brown Bears

Invested

$666

Value

$369.63

PnL

+$16.65

Record

56%

8126-6440 (14566)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Brown Bears

Invested

$336

Value

$312

PnL

-$24

Record

51%

1999-1933 (3932)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Boston Terriers

Invested

$436.79

Value

$237.16

PnL

-$49.68

Record

48%

62002-66846 (128848)

Both legs:

Brown Bears$118.0663.1¢+$24.06

Boston Terriers$168.342.5¢-$73.74

RN1

Brown Bears

Invested

$127.2

Value

$181.2

PnL

+$54

Record

53%

61880-54166 (116046)

sentrioCTR

Boston Terriers

Invested

$107.28

Value

$104.89

PnL

-$2.38

Record

50%

26188-25839 (52027)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Boston Terriers

Invested

$42.47

Value

$33.68

PnL

-$8.79

Record

53%

24089-21161 (45250)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Boston Terriers

Invested

$44.31

Value

$17.97

PnL

-$2.58

Record

54%

10159-8530 (18689)

ameisgoat11<$100

Brown Bears

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$0.13

Record

52%

8872-8054 (16926)

Research grade

AvoidBrown Bears at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Brown Bears

7 of 11 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Brown Bears. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBoston Terriers 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrBrown Bears 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedBrown Bears 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Brown Bears 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Brown Bears wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.