Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns: O/U 159.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 58¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
$1.1K
-$88.01
48.9¢ → 58¢
+19% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 58%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 49¢ | $740.28 | $679.85 | -$60.43 | 49% 2896-2959 (5855) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 48.9¢ | $142.44 | $131.33 | -$11.1 | 48% 4056-4455 (8511) |
 RN1 | Underavg 49.8¢ | $134.1 | $121.25 | -$12.85 | 54% 6095-5185 (11280) |
QW qWOprt7CTR | Overavg 52¢ | $100 | $92.35 | -$7.65 | 8% 8-88 (96) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $19.27 | $21.15 | +$1.88 | 48% 4819-5125 (9944) |
 dips.CTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $14.19 | $16.34 | +$2.15 | 48% 1342-1442 (2784) |
Invested
$740.28
Value
$679.85
PnL
-$60.43
Record
49%
2896-2959 (5855)
Invested
$142.44
Value
$131.33
PnL
-$11.1
Record
48%
4056-4455 (8511)
RN1Invested
$134.1
Value
$121.25
PnL
-$12.85
Record
54%
6095-5185 (11280)
Invested
$100
Value
$92.35
PnL
-$7.65
Record
8%
8-88 (96)
Invested
$19.27
Value
$21.15
PnL
+$1.88
Record
48%
4819-5125 (9944)
dips.CTR<$100Invested
$14.19
Value
$16.34
PnL
+$2.15
Record
48%
1342-1442 (2784)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.