Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Texas Longhorns (27%) · Texas Longhorns at 60¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Baylor Bears40¢Texas Longhorns60¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Texas Longhorns

Consensus Traders

Texas Longhorns 27%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$238.89

Smart Money Entry

63.9¢ → 60¢

-6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidTexas Longhorns at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas Longhorns

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Baylor Bears40%

Texas Longhorns60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texas Longhorns3 traders

Total Value$756.82

Total Shares1,555

Combined PnL-$262.05

Baylor Bears8 traders

Total Value$972.41

Total Shares2,503

Combined PnL+$23.16

Texas Longhorns — 27%Baylor Bears — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-32 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on Texas Longhorns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBaylor Bears 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Baylor Bears 82% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774c	Texas Longhornsavg 64¢	$936.5	$702.37	-$234.12	26% 250-698 (948)
VE VenusianCTR	Baylor Bearsavg 36.3¢	$595.36	$598.48	+$3.12	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
RN1ARB<$100	Texas Longhornsavg 58.8¢	$328.71	$276.56	-$52.15	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
└ Texas Longhorns leg	Texas Longhornsavg 58.8¢	$255.21	$208.32	-$46.9
└ Baylor Bears leg	Baylor Bearsavg 56¢	$73.5	$68.25	-$5.25
MA MadridTimeCTR	Baylor Bearsavg 40.8¢	$143.12	$128.17	-$14.95	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
38 38791873984189CTR	Baylor Bearsavg 36.4¢	$93.22	$111.84	+$32.47	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Baylor Bearsavg 48.4¢	$67.91	$51.18	-$16.73	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Texas Longhornsavg 64¢	$57.24	$45.07	-$12.17	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Baylor Bearsavg 36.6¢	$31.93	$42.36	+$10.43	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Baylor Bearsavg 36.6¢	$20.38	$28.94	+$8.56	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
TH thirdt1me<$100	Texas Longhornsavg 57¢	$67.13	$9.38	-$15.76	47% 383-426 (809)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Baylor Bearsavg 34.9¢	$9.43	$9.05	-$0.38	57% 3683-2778 (6461)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Baylor Bearsavg 38¢	$1.75	$2.4	+$0.65	56% 3926-3105 (7031)

hi774c

Texas Longhorns

Invested

$936.5

Value

$702.37

PnL

-$234.12

Record

26%

250-698 (948)

VenusianCTR

Baylor Bears

Invested

$595.36

Value

$598.48

PnL

+$3.12

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

RN1ARB<$100

Texas Longhorns

Invested

$328.71

Value

$276.56

PnL

-$52.15

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Both legs:

Texas Longhorns$255.2158.8¢-$46.9

Baylor Bears$73.556¢-$5.25

MadridTimeCTR

Baylor Bears

Invested

$143.12

Value

$128.17

PnL

-$14.95

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

38791873984189CTR

Baylor Bears

Invested

$93.22

Value

$111.84

PnL

+$32.47

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

LimousinCTR<$100

Baylor Bears

Invested

$67.91

Value

$51.18

PnL

-$16.73

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

Flaznorp<$100

Texas Longhorns

Invested

$57.24

Value

$45.07

PnL

-$12.17

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Baylor Bears

Invested

$31.93

Value

$42.36

PnL

+$10.43

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Baylor Bears

Invested

$20.38

Value

$28.94

PnL

+$8.56

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

thirdt1me<$100

Texas Longhorns

Invested

$67.13

Value

$9.38

PnL

-$15.76

Record

47%

383-426 (809)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Baylor Bears

Invested

$9.43

Value

$9.05

PnL

-$0.38

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Baylor Bears

Invested

$1.75

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.65

Record

56%

3926-3105 (7031)

Research grade

AvoidTexas Longhorns at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Texas Longhorns

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-32 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on Texas Longhorns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBaylor Bears 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Baylor Bears 82% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas Longhorns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.