Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Ball State Cardinals vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 150.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 44¢ · $281 held · ended Nov 14

Over56¢Under44¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$281.48

Combined PnL

$7.38

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$89.55

Total Shares142

Combined PnL+$15.4

Over3 traders

Total Value$50.07

Total Shares116

Combined PnL-$8.02

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 61.7¢	$153.97	$141.86	-$12.11	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$75	$94.5	+$19.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 61.7¢	$78.97	$47.36	-$31.61
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 52.5¢	$68.97	$82.8	+$13.84	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 47.4¢	$45.57	$36.13	-$9.44	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 47.5¢	$9.5	$11.2	+$1.7	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.68	$3.6	+$0.91	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$2.5	$3.15	+$0.65	40% 614-914 (1528)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 53¢	$3.03	$2.74	-$0.29	46% 2359-2814 (5173)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$153.97

Value

$141.86

PnL

-$12.11

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

Both legs:

Under$7550¢+$19.5

Over$78.9761.7¢-$31.61

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$68.97

Value

$82.8

PnL

+$13.84

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$45.57

Value

$36.13

PnL

-$9.44

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$9.5

Value

$11.2

PnL

+$1.7

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.68

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0.91

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.5

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0.65

Record

40%

614-914 (1528)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$3.03

Value

$2.74

PnL

-$0.29

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.