Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-2.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Arizona Wildcats (70%) · Arizona Wildcats at 60¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Arizona Wildcats60¢Auburn Tigers40¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Arizona Wildcats

Consensus Traders

Arizona Wildcats 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$270.57

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 60¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidArizona Wildcats at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arizona Wildcats

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Arizona Wildcats60%

Auburn Tigers40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arizona Wildcats7 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,934

Combined PnL+$48.51

Auburn Tigers3 traders

Total Value$711.65

Total Shares1,449

Combined PnL+$222.07

Arizona Wildcats — 70%Auburn Tigers — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-36 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Arizona Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrArizona Wildcats 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Auburn Tigers 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Arizona Wildcatsavg 47.3¢	$903.78	$973.51	+$69.73	57% 3567-2709 (6276)
TA takeormake	Arizona Wildcatsavg 76¢	$982.49	$943.47	-$39.02	58% 3427-2519 (5946)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Auburn Tigersavg 24.4¢	$412.69	$632.79	+$228.27	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Arizona Wildcatsavg 48.1¢	$258.04	$273.85	+$15.81	49% 516-536 (1052)
RN1	Arizona Wildcatsavg 60¢	$101.92	$103.62	+$1.7	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Arizona Wildcatsavg 60¢	$77.6	$70.61	-$6.99	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
└ Arizona Wildcats leg	Arizona Wildcatsavg 60¢	$42.6	$43.31	+$0.71
└ Auburn Tigers leg	Auburn Tigersavg 50¢	$35	$27.3	-$7.7
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Auburn Tigersavg 50¢	$202	$68.43	-$6.34	73% 119-43 (162)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Arizona Wildcatsavg 49¢	$15.68	$16.32	+$0.64	55% 250-204 (454)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Auburn Tigersavg 50¢	$10.29	$10.43	+$0.14	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Arizona Wildcatsavg 47¢	$4.7	$5	+$0.3	40% 609-910 (1519)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Arizona Wildcatsavg 70¢	$5.65	$5	-$0.65	49% 1865-1975 (3840)

HomeRunHazard

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$903.78

Value

$973.51

PnL

+$69.73

Record

57%

3567-2709 (6276)

takeormake

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$982.49

Value

$943.47

PnL

-$39.02

Record

58%

3427-2519 (5946)

FlaznorpCTR

Auburn Tigers

Invested

$412.69

Value

$632.79

PnL

+$228.27

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$258.04

Value

$273.85

PnL

+$15.81

Record

49%

516-536 (1052)

RN1

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$101.92

Value

$103.62

PnL

+$1.7

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$77.6

Value

$70.61

PnL

-$6.99

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

Both legs:

Arizona Wildcats$42.660¢+$0.71

Auburn Tigers$3550¢-$7.7

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Auburn Tigers

Invested

$202

Value

$68.43

PnL

-$6.34

Record

73%

119-43 (162)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$15.68

Value

$16.32

PnL

+$0.64

Record

55%

250-204 (454)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Auburn Tigers

Invested

$10.29

Value

$10.43

PnL

+$0.14

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

ameisgoat11<$100

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$4.7

Value

PnL

+$0.3

Record

40%

609-910 (1519)

ferdinand2<$100

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$5.65

Value

PnL

-$0.65

Record

49%

1865-1975 (3840)

Research grade

AvoidArizona Wildcats at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Arizona Wildcats

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-36 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Arizona Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrArizona Wildcats 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Auburn Tigers 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arizona Wildcats wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.