Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs. UCLA Bruins: O/U 157.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 55¢ · $916 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
$916.24
$66.16
49¢ → 54.5¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 49.2¢ | $495.13 | $548.82 | +$53.69 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 48.5¢ | $238.78 | $255.84 | +$17.06 | 48% 1419-1557 (2976) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 50.1¢ | $57.07 | $62.05 | +$4.98 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 50.2¢ | $103.94 | $47.26 | -$9.29 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.28 | -$0.27 | 33% 317-631 (948) |
Invested
$495.13
Value
$548.82
PnL
+$53.69
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Invested
$238.78
Value
$255.84
PnL
+$17.06
Record
48%
1419-1557 (2976)
Invested
$57.07
Value
$62.05
PnL
+$4.98
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$103.94
Value
$47.26
PnL
-$9.29
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.28
PnL
-$0.27
Record
33%
317-631 (948)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.