Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs. California Baptist Lancers
4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold California Baptist Lancers (33%) · California Baptist Lancers at 79¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
California Baptist Lancers
12
California Baptist Lancers 33%
$1.1K
-$2.92
92¢ → 78.5¢
-15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidCalifornia Baptist Lancers at 79%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
25% of non-arb traders are on California Baptist Lancers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | California Baptist Lancersavg 91.8¢ | $739.31 | $748.75 | +$9.44 | 55% 441-368 (809) |
 RN1 | California Baptist Lancersavg 93¢ | $136.64 | $121.19 | -$15.45 | 56% 5073-4021 (9094) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100 | California Baptist Lancersavg 92¢ | $73.33 | $72.8 | -$0.53 | 55% 1350-1126 (2476) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lionsavg 8¢ | $56.03 | $52.28 | -$3.76 | 45% 224-276 (500) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lionsavg 8¢ | $24.72 | $30.84 | +$6.11 | 48% 2942-3249 (6191) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lionsavg 8¢ | $16 | $18 | +$2 | 51% 499-470 (969) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | California Baptist Lancersavg 92¢ | $13.8 | $13.95 | +$0.15 | 40% 614-914 (1528) |
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lionsavg 10¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 | 48% 243-264 (507) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lionsavg 8¢ | $10 | $8.75 | -$1.25 | 32% 92-195 (287) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lionsavg 9.2¢ | $3.42 | $3.7 | +$0.28 | 49% 1349-1396 (2745) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lionsavg 6¢ | $0.64 | $0.69 | +$0.05 | 51% 2368-2313 (4681) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lionsavg 7¢ | $0.08 | $0.1 | +$0.02 | 35% 424-772 (1196) |
0xheavy888Invested
$739.31
Value
$748.75
PnL
+$9.44
Record
55%
441-368 (809)
RN1Invested
$136.64
Value
$121.19
PnL
-$15.45
Record
56%
5073-4021 (9094)
Invested
$73.33
Value
$72.8
PnL
-$0.53
Record
55%
1350-1126 (2476)
Invested
$56.03
Value
$52.28
PnL
-$3.76
Record
45%
224-276 (500)
Invested
$24.72
Value
$30.84
PnL
+$6.11
Record
48%
2942-3249 (6191)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$16
Value
$18
PnL
+$2
Record
51%
499-470 (969)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$13.95
PnL
+$0.15
Record
40%
614-914 (1528)
Invested
$10
Value
$10
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
243-264 (507)
Invested
$10
Value
$8.75
PnL
-$1.25
Record
32%
92-195 (287)
Invested
$3.42
Value
$3.7
PnL
+$0.28
Record
49%
1349-1396 (2745)
Invested
$0.64
Value
$0.69
PnL
+$0.05
Record
51%
2368-2313 (4681)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$0.1
PnL
+$0.02
Record
35%
424-772 (1196)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xheavy888
California Baptist Lancers — $748.75
RN1
California Baptist Lancers — $121.19
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872
California Baptist Lancers — $72.8
Forecastication2
CTRArkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions — $52.28
38791873984189
CTRArkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions — $30.84
nigiri99
CTRArkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions — $18
ameisgoat11
California Baptist Lancers — $13.95
thirdt1me
CTRArkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions — $10
Oddstorm
CTRArkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions — $8.75
Pan9X
CTRArkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions — $3.7