Army Black Knights vs. New Haven Chargers

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold New Haven Chargers (63%) · New Haven Chargers at 63¢ · $568 held · ended Nov 11

Army Black Knights37¢New Haven Chargers63¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

New Haven Chargers

Consensus Traders

New Haven Chargers 63%

Total Value

$567.61

Combined PnL

$74.52

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 63¢

+31% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNew Haven Chargers at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

New Haven Chargers

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Army Black Knights37%

New Haven Chargers63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

New Haven Chargers5 traders

Total Value$545.39

Total Shares933

Combined PnL+$74.42

Army Black Knights3 traders

Total Value$22.22

Total Shares47

Combined PnL+$0.1

New Haven Chargers — 63%Army Black Knights — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on New Haven Chargers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNew Haven Chargers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000New Haven Chargers 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	New Haven Chargersavg 47¢	$414.35	$483.39	+$69.04	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	New Haven Chargersavg 56¢	$22.4	$27.2	+$4.8	56% 708-556 (1264)
OX oxe78sh4w98<$100	New Haven Chargersavg 63¢	$22.05	$21.35	-$0.7	3% 11-422 (433)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Army Black Knightsavg 51.9¢	$11.42	$11.22	-$0.2	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
PA Pan9X<$100	New Haven Chargersavg 47¢	$9.82	$10.68	+$0.86	49% 443-470 (913)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Army Black Knightsavg 52¢	$7.8	$7.65	-$0.15	34% 233-457 (690)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Army Black Knightsavg 29¢	$2.9	$3.35	+$0.45	53% 5511-4919 (10430)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	New Haven Chargersavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.78	+$0.43	26% 180-518 (698)

HomeRunHazard

New Haven Chargers

Invested

$414.35

Value

$483.39

PnL

+$69.04

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

averagejoetraders<$100

New Haven Chargers

Invested

$22.4

Value

$27.2

PnL

+$4.8

Record

56%

708-556 (1264)

oxe78sh4w98<$100

New Haven Chargers

Invested

$22.05

Value

$21.35

PnL

-$0.7

Record

11-422 (433)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Army Black Knights

Invested

$11.42

Value

$11.22

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

Pan9X<$100

New Haven Chargers

Invested

$9.82

Value

$10.68

PnL

+$0.86

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

sentrioCTR<$100

Army Black Knights

Invested

$7.8

Value

$7.65

PnL

-$0.15

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Army Black Knights

Invested

$2.9

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$0.45

Record

53%

5511-4919 (10430)

ameisgoat11<$100

New Haven Chargers

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.78

PnL

+$0.43

Record

26%

180-518 (698)

Research grade

AvoidNew Haven Chargers at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

New Haven Chargers

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on New Haven Chargers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNew Haven Chargers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000New Haven Chargers 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that New Haven Chargers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.