Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Arkansas Razorbacks, while the market favors Virginia Cavaliers (97%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-1.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Arkansas Razorbacks (67%) · Arkansas Razorbacks at 2.6¢ · $366 held · ended Nov 8

Virginia Cavaliers97¢Arkansas Razorbacks3¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Arkansas Razorbacks

Consensus Traders

Arkansas Razorbacks 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$366.22

Combined PnL

-$62.02

Smart Money Entry

40.8¢ → 2.6¢

-94% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidArkansas Razorbacks at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arkansas Razorbacks

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Virginia Cavaliers 97%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Virginia Cavaliers97%

Arkansas Razorbacks3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Virginia Cavaliers2 traders

Total Value$131.44

Total Shares151

Combined PnL+$16.15

Arkansas Razorbacks4 traders

Total Value$24.78

Total Shares300

Combined PnL-$78.17

Virginia Cavaliers — 33%Arkansas Razorbacks — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Arkansas Razorbacks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVirginia Cavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrArkansas Razorbacks 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedArkansas Razorbacks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Arkansas Razorbacks 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 50¢	$210	$210	+$0	56% 195-151 (346)
└ Virginia Cavaliers leg	Virginia Cavaliersavg 50¢	$100	$126	+$19
└ Arkansas Razorbacks leg	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 50¢	$100	$84	-$19
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Virginia Cavaliersavg 51.3¢	$75.47	$83.8	+$8.33	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
RN1<$100	Virginia Cavaliersavg 81¢	$39.82	$47.63	+$7.82	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 40.2¢	$88.72	$9.68	-$79.04	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 42¢	$6.54	$8.12	+$1.58	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 42.1¢	$5.63	$5.18	-$0.45	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 43¢	$2.05	$1.8	-$0.25	52% 9497-8605 (18102)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Arkansas Razorbacks

Invested

$210

Value

$210

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

195-151 (346)

Both legs:

Virginia Cavaliers$10050¢+$19

Arkansas Razorbacks$10050¢-$19

HomeRunHazard<$100

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$75.47

Value

$83.8

PnL

+$8.33

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

RN1<$100

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$39.82

Value

$47.63

PnL

+$7.82

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Arkansas Razorbacks

Invested

$88.72

Value

$9.68

PnL

-$79.04

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

sentrioCTR<$100

Arkansas Razorbacks

Invested

$6.54

Value

$8.12

PnL

+$1.58

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Arkansas Razorbacks

Invested

$5.63

Value

$5.18

PnL

-$0.45

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Arkansas Razorbacks

Invested

$2.05

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0.25

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

Research grade

AvoidArkansas Razorbacks at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Arkansas Razorbacks

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Virginia Cavaliers 97%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Arkansas Razorbacks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVirginia Cavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrArkansas Razorbacks 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedArkansas Razorbacks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Arkansas Razorbacks 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arkansas Razorbacks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.8%

2.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2550.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

2650.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.