Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Virginia Cavaliers

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Virginia Cavaliers (92%) · Virginia Cavaliers at 61¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 8

Arkansas Razorbacks40¢Virginia Cavaliers60¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Virginia Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Virginia Cavaliers 92%

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$127.16

Smart Money Entry

59.4¢ → 60.5¢

+2% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidVirginia Cavaliers at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Virginia Cavaliers

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Arkansas Razorbacks40%

Virginia Cavaliers61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Virginia Cavaliers11 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares12,391

Combined PnL+$130.38

Arkansas Razorbacks1 trader

Total Value$37.26

Total Shares92

Combined PnL-$3.22

Virginia Cavaliers — 92%Arkansas Razorbacks — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Virginia Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVirginia Cavaliers 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrVirginia Cavaliers 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedVirginia Cavaliers 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Virginia Cavaliers 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Virginia Cavaliersavg 58.7¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$63.82	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
nigiri99	Virginia Cavaliersavg 60.2¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$7.75	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
IM imjustkenisghey	Virginia Cavaliersavg 60¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$14.46	48% 491-536 (1027)
0xheavy888	Virginia Cavaliersavg 60¢	$600.34	$605.25	+$4.92	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
FL Flaznorp	Virginia Cavaliersavg 57¢	$786	$467.67	+$19.65	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
SN SnakeBall	Virginia Cavaliersavg 60¢	$402.23	$405.59	+$3.35	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
38 38791873984189	Virginia Cavaliersavg 57.2¢	$178.31	$186.49	+$8.18	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
VeryLucky888	Virginia Cavaliersavg 59.4¢	$159.16	$162.18	+$3.02	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
SE sentrio	Virginia Cavaliersavg 57.6¢	$260.44	$154.96	+$4.87	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Arkansas Razorbacksavg 44¢	$40.48	$37.26	-$3.22	50% 1560-1566 (3126)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Virginia Cavaliersavg 58.7¢	$10.8	$11.05	+$0.25	52% 9470-8570 (18040)
PA Pan9X<$100	Virginia Cavaliersavg 59¢	$10.09	$7.79	+$0.11	52% 27099-24604 (51703)

HomeRunHazard

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$2,257.73

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$63.82

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

nigiri99

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$1,830.84

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$7.75

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

imjustkenisghey

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$1,735.25

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$14.46

Record

48%

491-536 (1027)

0xheavy888

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$600.34

Value

$605.25

PnL

+$4.92

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

Flaznorp

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$786

Value

$467.67

PnL

+$19.65

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

SnakeBall

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$402.23

Value

$405.59

PnL

+$3.35

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

38791873984189

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$178.31

Value

$186.49

PnL

+$8.18

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

VeryLucky888

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$159.16

Value

$162.18

PnL

+$3.02

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

sentrio

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$260.44

Value

$154.96

PnL

+$4.87

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Arkansas Razorbacks

Invested

$40.48

Value

$37.26

PnL

-$3.22

Record

50%

1560-1566 (3126)

ameisgoat11<$100

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$10.8

Value

$11.05

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Pan9X<$100

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$10.09

Value

$7.79

PnL

+$0.11

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

Research grade

AvoidVirginia Cavaliers at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Virginia Cavaliers

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Virginia Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVirginia Cavaliers 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrVirginia Cavaliers 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedVirginia Cavaliers 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Virginia Cavaliers 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Virginia Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.