Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Merrimack College Warriors

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Appalachian State Mountaineers (67%) · Appalachian State Mountaineers at 97¢ · $519 held · ended Nov 2

Appalachian State Mountaineers97¢Merrimack College Warriors3¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Appalachian State Mountaineers

Consensus Traders

Appalachian State Mountaineers 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$518.95

Combined PnL

$14.92

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 97.4¢

+51% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidAppalachian State Mountaineers at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Appalachian State Mountaineers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Appalachian State Mountaineers97%

Merrimack College Warriors3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Appalachian State Mountaineers6 traders

Total Value$350.04

Total Shares384

Combined PnL+$72.08

Merrimack College Warriors3 traders

Total Value$64.26

Total Shares1,446

Combined PnL-$57.17

Appalachian State Mountaineers — 67%Merrimack College Warriors — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Appalachian State Mountaineers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAppalachian State Mountaineers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAppalachian State Mountaineers 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Appalachian State Mountaineers 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Appalachian State Mountaineersavg 80.6¢	$144.5	$149.89	+$5.39	51% 17613-16616 (34229)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Merrimack College Warriorsavg 28.5¢	$246.35	$104.65	-$125.95	47% 13002-14566 (27568)
└ Appalachian State Mountaineers leg	Appalachian State Mountaineersavg 53.3¢	$40.91	$73.32	+$32.41
└ Merrimack College Warriors leg	Merrimack College Warriorsavg 28.5¢	$198.32	$31.33	-$158.37
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Appalachian State Mountaineersavg 65.1¢	$70.08	$99.76	+$20.37	58% 48512-34664 (83176)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Appalachian State Mountaineersavg 40¢	$45.58	$91.17	+$45.59	50% 4008-3992 (8000)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Merrimack College Warriorsavg 8.5¢	$69.34	$36.73	-$32.62	56% 18370-14706 (33076)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Merrimack College Warriorsavg 4¢	$11.7	$14.04	+$2.34	43% 7731-10455 (18186)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Merrimack College Warriorsavg 12¢	$40.38	$13.49	-$26.89	48% 1151-1263 (2414)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Appalachian State Mountaineersavg 86¢	$4.3	$4.3	+$0	51% 997-961 (1958)
HRTrading<$100	Appalachian State Mountaineersavg 86¢	$2.39	$2.99	+$0.6	53% 6371-5759 (12130)
TO torta.tech<$100	Appalachian State Mountaineersavg 80¢	$1.8	$1.94	+$0.14	62% 8308-4990 (13298)

Flaznorp

Appalachian State Mountaineers

Invested

$144.5

Value

$149.89

PnL

+$5.39

Record

51%

17613-16616 (34229)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Merrimack College Warriors

Invested

$246.35

Value

$104.65

PnL

-$125.95

Record

47%

13002-14566 (27568)

Both legs:

Appalachian State Mountaineers$40.9153.3¢+$32.41

Merrimack College Warriors$198.3228.5¢-$158.37

UpTheBlues<$100

Appalachian State Mountaineers

Invested

$70.08

Value

$99.76

PnL

+$20.37

Record

58%

48512-34664 (83176)

NatoAlfista<$100

Appalachian State Mountaineers

Invested

$45.58

Value

$91.17

PnL

+$45.59

Record

50%

4008-3992 (8000)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Merrimack College Warriors

Invested

$69.34

Value

$36.73

PnL

-$32.62

Record

56%

18370-14706 (33076)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Merrimack College Warriors

Invested

$11.7

Value

$14.04

PnL

+$2.34

Record

43%

7731-10455 (18186)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Merrimack College Warriors

Invested

$40.38

Value

$13.49

PnL

-$26.89

Record

48%

1151-1263 (2414)

ferdinand2<$100

Appalachian State Mountaineers

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

997-961 (1958)

HRTrading<$100

Appalachian State Mountaineers

Invested

$2.39

Value

$2.99

PnL

+$0.6

Record

53%

6371-5759 (12130)

torta.tech<$100

Appalachian State Mountaineers

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.94

PnL

+$0.14

Record

62%

8308-4990 (13298)

Research grade

AvoidAppalachian State Mountaineers at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Appalachian State Mountaineers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Appalachian State Mountaineers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAppalachian State Mountaineers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAppalachian State Mountaineers 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Appalachian State Mountaineers 75% · 4

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Appalachian State Mountaineers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.