Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Drexel Dragons, while the market favors American Eagles (53%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
American Eagles vs. Drexel Dragons
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Drexel Dragons (80%) · Drexel Dragons at 48¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Drexel Dragons
5
Drexel Dragons 80%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
$10.59
49.3¢ → 47.5¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidDrexel Dragons at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors American Eagles 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Drexel Dragons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | American Eaglesavg 49¢ | $499.8 | $510.01 | +$10.2 | 57% 3229-2433 (5662) |
| └ American Eagles leg | American Eaglesavg 49¢ | $278.36 | $284.05 | +$5.68 | |
| └ Drexel Dragons leg | Drexel Dragonsavg 49¢ | $221.44 | $225.96 | +$4.52 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Drexel Dragonsavg 49¢ | $350.35 | $357.5 | +$7.15 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
0X 0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9 | American Eaglesavg 49.9¢ | $155.39 | $163.42 | +$8.03 | 1% 6-421 (427) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Drexel Dragonsavg 50¢ | $143.14 | $135.98 | -$7.16 | 55% 205-165 (370) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Drexel Dragonsavg 49.4¢ | $135.75 | $104 | +$2.42 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Drexel Dragonsavg 49.3¢ | $10.85 | $11 | +$0.15 | 49% 692-733 (1425) |
Invested
$499.8
Value
$510.01
PnL
+$10.2
Record
57%
3229-2433 (5662)
Both legs:
Invested
$350.35
Value
$357.5
PnL
+$7.15
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
Invested
$155.39
Value
$163.42
PnL
+$8.03
Record
1%
6-421 (427)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$143.14
Value
$135.98
PnL
-$7.16
Record
55%
205-165 (370)
Invested
$135.75
Value
$104
PnL
+$2.42
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
Invested
$10.85
Value
$11
PnL
+$0.15
Record
49%
692-733 (1425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.