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Yes
LornaPredictsCTR<$100YesYesNo
alanhutton<$100No
Istaroth<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Cambria FDV above $40M one day after launch?
Resolved No. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$218.12
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares786
Combined PnL-$218.12
No3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 50%No — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 34.8¢ | $400.11 | — | -$218.12 | 36% 15393-27456 (42849) |
LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 535-2427 (2962) |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 57% 592-442 (1034) |
20 20260601<$100 | Noavg 64.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 88-79 (167) |
alanhutton<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | — | — | +$0 | 68% 325-154 (479) |
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | — | — | +$0 | 20% 308-1212 (1520) |
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTRInvested
$400.11
Value
—
PnL
-$218.12
Record
36%
15393-27456 (42849)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
535-2427 (2962)
HI
hithitfarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
592-442 (1034)
20
20260601<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
88-79 (167)
alanhutton<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
325-154 (479)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
20%
308-1212 (1520)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x26e43922...f650bd
Slug
cambria-fdv-above-40m-one-day-after-launch