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NoYes
LornaPredictsCTR<$100YesYes
alanhutton<$100No
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Cambria FDV above $30M one day after launch?
Resolved No. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 50%
Total Value
$323.85
Combined PnL
-$232.77
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$323.85
Total Shares324
Combined PnL+$269.28
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,206
Combined PnL-$502.05
No — 50%Yes — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR tradexplorer | Noavg 67¢ | $54.57 | $323.85 | +$269.28 | 60% 289-194 (483) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 42.6¢ | $624.45 | — | -$502.05 | 36% 15393-27456 (42849) |
LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 535-2427 (2962) |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 57% 592-442 (1034) |
alanhutton<$100 | Noavg 26.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 68% 325-154 (479) |
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 15296-11843 (27139) |
TR
tradexplorerInvested
$54.57
Value
$323.85
PnL
+$269.28
Record
60%
289-194 (483)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTRInvested
$624.45
Value
—
PnL
-$502.05
Record
36%
15393-27456 (42849)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
535-2427 (2962)
HI
hithitfarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
592-442 (1034)
alanhutton<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
325-154 (479)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
15296-11843 (27139)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x1c82b2f0...4d4dd4
Slug
cambria-fdv-above-30m-one-day-after-launch