Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-10-31?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 59¢ · $13K held · ends Oct 31

Yes42¢No58¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$13.4K

Combined PnL

-$31.15

Smart Money Entry

60.2¢ → 58.5¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares14,470

Combined PnL-$196.12

No6 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares12,612

Combined PnL+$164.97

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 39.9¢	$5.6K	$5.4K	-$196.25	59% 45810-32163 (77973)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 60.1¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$55.08	74% 6672-2394 (9066)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 60¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$60	53% 5631-4970 (10601)
AN Anon455	Noavg 60.4¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$43.71	55% 2909-2339 (5248)
HI hi774c	Noavg 60¢	$271.65	$278.44	+$6.79	52% 4731-4450 (9181)
fyrskenCTR	Yesavg 40¢	$150	$150	+$0	49% 281-295 (576)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 61.9¢	$84.86	$84.24	-$0.61	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$31.16	$30.78	-$0.38	50% 25095-24835 (49930)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$12.58	$13.6	+$0.51	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 63¢	$4.41	$4.41	+$0	53% 15954-14130 (30084)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,580.63

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$196.25

Record

59%

45810-32163 (77973)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$2,453.24

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$55.08

Record

74%

6672-2394 (9066)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$2,400

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$60

Record

53%

5631-4970 (10601)

Anon455

Invested

$2,397.61

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$43.71

Record

55%

2909-2339 (5248)

hi774c

Invested

$271.65

Value

$278.44

PnL

+$6.79

Record

52%

4731-4450 (9181)

fyrskenCTR

Yes

Invested

$150

Value

$150

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

281-295 (576)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$84.86

Value

$84.24

PnL

-$0.61

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.16

Value

$30.78

PnL

-$0.38

Record

50%

25095-24835 (49930)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.58

Value

$13.6

PnL

+$0.51

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$4.41

Value

$4.41

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

15954-14130 (30084)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.