1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: 1st Half O/U 1.5
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 100¢ · $36K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 78%
$36.3K
$-1.8K
69.9¢ → 100¢
+43% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 66.3¢ | $16.6K | $21.6K | +$5.0K | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
DA dashattacker | Underavg 74¢ | $8.4K | $11.3K | +$2.9K | 72% 2540-972 (3512) |
 ER72SEN | Underavg 80.3¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$49.4 | 67% 316-153 (469) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 92.8¢ | $950.49 | $1.0K | +$72.95 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 51¢ | $158.1 | $309.85 | +$151.75 | 48% 1065-1167 (2232) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 35¢ | $115.49 | $188.03 | -$17.61 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
SP spendingmoney<$100 | Underavg 96¢ | $33.12 | $34.48 | +$1.36 | 56% 812-648 (1460) |
KK KkunnCTR | Overavg 32.9¢ | $10.0K | $15.22 | $-10.0K | 44% 235-303 (538) |
 eskilloCTR<$100 | Overavg 4.8¢ | $12.13 | $0.13 | -$12 | 42% 599-832 (1431) |
RN1Invested
$16,647.29
Value
$21.6K
PnL
+$5.0K
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
Invested
$8,389.79
Value
$11.3K
PnL
+$2.9K
Record
72%
2540-972 (3512)
ER72SENInvested
$1,721.56
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$49.4
Record
67%
316-153 (469)
Invested
$950.49
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$72.95
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$158.1
Value
$309.85
PnL
+$151.75
Record
48%
1065-1167 (2232)
Invested
$115.49
Value
$188.03
PnL
-$17.61
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$33.12
Value
$34.48
PnL
+$1.36
Record
56%
812-648 (1460)
Invested
$10,011.35
Value
$15.22
PnL
$-10.0K
Record
44%
235-303 (538)
eskilloCTR<$100Invested
$12.13
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$12
Record
42%
599-832 (1431)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.