Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-11-07?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 75¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7
🔬
Research candidate
No
7
No 86%
1 arb excluded
$3.5K
-$18.83
75.3¢ → 74.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 75%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+12 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-P | Noavg 74¢ | $890.22 | $896.24 | +$6.02 | 64% 10179-5769 (15948) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 74.2¢ | $772.08 | $770.43 | -$1.65 | 64% 10182-5720 (15902) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Noavg 77.9¢ | $687.11 | $652.47 | -$34.63 | 64% 2039-1134 (3173) |
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276 | Noavg 74¢ | $486.77 | $490.06 | +$3.29 | 67% 2812-1387 (4199) |
LI LimousinARB<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $692.05 | $269.11 | +$1.57 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 75¢ | $141.77 | $140.84 | -$0.95 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25¢ | $125.7 | $128.27 | +$2.52 | |
CA Cannae | Noavg 80¢ | $208.1 | $194.74 | -$7.39 | 53% 16963-15085 (32048) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 22.9¢ | $172 | $188.11 | +$16.12 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $31.16 | $28.82 | -$0.58 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
Invested
$890.22
Value
$896.24
PnL
+$6.02
Record
64%
10179-5769 (15948)
Invested
$772.08
Value
$770.43
PnL
-$1.65
Record
64%
10182-5720 (15902)
Invested
$687.11
Value
$652.47
PnL
-$34.63
Record
64%
2039-1134 (3173)
Invested
$486.77
Value
$490.06
PnL
+$3.29
Record
67%
2812-1387 (4199)
Invested
$692.05
Value
$269.11
PnL
+$1.57
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
Both legs:
Invested
$208.1
Value
$194.74
PnL
-$7.39
Record
53%
16963-15085 (32048)
Invested
$172
Value
$188.11
PnL
+$16.12
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$31.16
Value
$28.82
PnL
-$0.58
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.