Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-11-07?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 53¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 7

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$20.4K

Combined PnL

-$218.26

Smart Money Entry

57.1¢ → 52.5¢

-8% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares21,469

Combined PnL+$581.2

Yes10 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares19,007

Combined PnL-$799.45

No — 17%Yes — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 44.3¢	$9.5K	$10.0K	+$582.65	50% 21519-21799 (43318)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 57.2¢	$4.2K	$3.9K	-$311.71	51% 26991-25572 (52563)
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 57¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$155.24	49% 14964-15854 (30818)
NM NM-P	Yesavg 57¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$107.09	64% 10163-5703 (15866)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 57¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$78.35	50% 28862-28672 (57534)
GC GC-P	Yesavg 57¢	$1.1K	$992.34	-$84.26	64% 10165-5759 (15924)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 57¢	$855	$476.35	-$35	58% 47408-34193 (81601)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 57¢	$334.43	$310.96	-$26.4	51% 38171-37411 (75582)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 48.2¢	$56.24	$54.79	-$1.45	49% 1756-1850 (3606)
38 38791873984189<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$8.93	$7.28	-$1.03	48% 62298-67159 (129457)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$5.7	$5.3	-$0.4	52% 8958-8128 (17086)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$3.2	$2.97	+$0.03	50% 26346-25970 (52316)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$9,453.2

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$582.65

Record

50%

21519-21799 (43318)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$4,200.56

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$311.71

Record

51%

26991-25572 (52563)

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$1,966.42

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$155.24

Record

49%

14964-15854 (30818)

NM-P

Yes

Invested

$1,635.58

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$107.09

Record

64%

10163-5703 (15866)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$1,306.28

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$78.35

Record

50%

28862-28672 (57534)

GC-P

Yes

Invested

$1,067.24

Value

$992.34

PnL

-$84.26

Record

64%

10165-5759 (15924)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$855

Value

$476.35

PnL

-$35

Record

58%

47408-34193 (81601)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$334.43

Value

$310.96

PnL

-$26.4

Record

51%

38171-37411 (75582)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$56.24

Value

$54.79

PnL

-$1.45

Record

49%

1756-1850 (3606)

38791873984189<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.93

Value

$7.28

PnL

-$1.03

Record

48%

62298-67159 (129457)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.3

PnL

-$0.4

Record

52%

8958-8128 (17086)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.2

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

26346-25970 (52316)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.