SC Paderborn 07 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 56¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$5.6K
$30.39
56.1¢ → 55.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR | Overavg 44¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$28.23 | 42% 8163-11357 (19520) |
0X 0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b | Underavg 56¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$0 | 53% 232-209 (441) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 56.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$7.91 | 51% 27051-25620 (52671) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 58.1¢ | $153.26 | $147.89 | -$5.37 | 50% 28899-28703 (57602) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 56.2¢ | $32.57 | $32.18 | -$0.39 | 50% 26383-26006 (52389) |
Invested
$2,484.31
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$28.23
Record
42%
8163-11357 (19520)
Invested
$1,673.7
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
232-209 (441)
Invested
$1,259.57
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$7.91
Record
51%
27051-25620 (52671)
Invested
$153.26
Value
$147.89
PnL
-$5.37
Record
50%
28899-28703 (57602)
Invested
$32.57
Value
$32.18
PnL
-$0.39
Record
50%
26383-26006 (52389)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.