SC Paderborn 07 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (30%) · Over at 80¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7

Over80¢Under20¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 30%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$33.99

Smart Money Entry

66.9¢ → 80¢

+20% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over80%

Under20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,799

Combined PnL-$38.92

Under7 traders

Total Value$824.03

Total Shares2,339

Combined PnL+$4.94

Over — 30%Under — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 67¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$37.43	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
0X 0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39bCTR	Underavg 37.2¢	$691.37	$632.71	-$9.3	53% 232-209 (441)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 37.8¢	$131.07	$138.86	+$7.79	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 34.7¢	$27.61	$31.78	+$4.17	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 63¢	$31.3	$29.81	-$1.49	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$14.06	$15.82	+$1.76	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 65¢	$12.25	$12.25	+$0	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$2.1	$2.3	+$0.2	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$1.7	$2.03	+$0.33	52% 9018-8169 (17187)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$0.56	$0.53	-$0.01	51% 38228-37447 (75675)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,216.24

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$37.43

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39bCTR

Under

Invested

$691.37

Value

$632.71

PnL

-$9.3

Record

53%

232-209 (441)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$131.07

Value

$138.86

PnL

+$7.79

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.61

Value

$31.78

PnL

+$4.17

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$31.3

Value

$29.81

PnL

-$1.49

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.06

Value

$15.82

PnL

+$1.76

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$12.25

Value

$12.25

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.2

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.7

Value

$2.03

PnL

+$0.33

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.