Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-11-07?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 69¢ · $476 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$475.91
-$2.59
68¢ → 68.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 68.1¢ | $98.75 | $97.15 | -$1.6 | 50% 21530-21816 (43346) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $75.32 | $75.32 | -$0 | 64% 10175-5710 (15885) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 69.1¢ | $75.44 | $73.71 | -$1.73 | 49% 1807-1885 (3692) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $65.54 | $69.77 | +$4.23 | 51% 27041-25614 (52655) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $66.26 | $66.26 | +$0 | 64% 10173-5762 (15935) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $67.98 | $64.89 | -$3.09 | 46% 8761-10456 (19217) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 70.1¢ | $21.02 | $20.1 | -$0.92 | 52% 8999-8155 (17154) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $8.18 | $8.71 | +$0.53 | 50% 26374-25995 (52369) |
Invested
$98.75
Value
$97.15
PnL
-$1.6
Record
50%
21530-21816 (43346)
Invested
$75.32
Value
$75.32
PnL
-$0
Record
64%
10175-5710 (15885)
Invested
$75.44
Value
$73.71
PnL
-$1.73
Record
49%
1807-1885 (3692)
Invested
$65.54
Value
$69.77
PnL
+$4.23
Record
51%
27041-25614 (52655)
Invested
$66.26
Value
$66.26
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
10173-5762 (15935)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$67.98
Value
$64.89
PnL
-$3.09
Record
46%
8761-10456 (19217)
Invested
$21.02
Value
$20.1
PnL
-$0.92
Record
52%
8999-8155 (17154)
Invested
$8.18
Value
$8.71
PnL
+$0.53
Record
50%
26374-25995 (52369)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.