Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-11-07?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 57¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$2.2K
$11.21
56.1¢ → 57.5¢
+2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99CTR | Yesavg 46.2¢ | $794.36 | $773.1 | -$8.59 | 46% 8761-10456 (19217) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 56.5¢ | $533.42 | $538.38 | +$4.95 | 51% 27041-25614 (52655) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 55¢ | $208.35 | $215.82 | +$7.47 | 64% 10175-5710 (15885) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 55¢ | $205.58 | $213.06 | +$1.87 | 64% 10173-5762 (15935) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 57.9¢ | $208.62 | $207.29 | -$1.33 | 50% 28880-28690 (57570) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 55¢ | $274.97 | $207.19 | +$8.63 | 58% 47459-34244 (81703) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 58.2¢ | $88.63 | $86.86 | -$1.77 | 50% 1821-1809 (3630) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $2.9 | $2.88 | -$0.03 | 49% 1807-1885 (3692) |
nigiri99CTRInvested
$794.36
Value
$773.1
PnL
-$8.59
Record
46%
8761-10456 (19217)
Invested
$533.42
Value
$538.38
PnL
+$4.95
Record
51%
27041-25614 (52655)
Invested
$208.35
Value
$215.82
PnL
+$7.47
Record
64%
10175-5710 (15885)
Invested
$205.58
Value
$213.06
PnL
+$1.87
Record
64%
10173-5762 (15935)
Invested
$208.62
Value
$207.29
PnL
-$1.33
Record
50%
28880-28690 (57570)
VeryLucky888Invested
$274.97
Value
$207.19
PnL
+$8.63
Record
58%
47459-34244 (81703)
Invested
$88.63
Value
$86.86
PnL
-$1.77
Record
50%
1821-1809 (3630)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$2.88
PnL
-$0.03
Record
49%
1807-1885 (3692)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.