Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FC Schalke 04 vs. RB Leipzig: 1st Half O/U 0.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 38%
$5.1K
$-6.0K
57.8¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM Smallcoins | Overavg 78.2¢ | $3.1K | $4.0K | +$867.54 | 53% 1166-1032 (2198) |
SH shiifoo | Overavg 40¢ | $166.31 | $416.05 | +$249.74 | 60% 3351-2263 (5614) |
TO topdogbigboi | Overavg 61.9¢ | $170.56 | $274.88 | +$104.32 | 49% 7982-8322 (16304) |
PA pauleta23 | Overavg 77.9¢ | $187.29 | $240.25 | +$52.96 | 67% 23336-11741 (35077) |
US User7429 | Overavg 39.3¢ | $80.08 | $203.81 | +$123.73 | 55% 8305-6697 (15002) |
DA dashattackerCTR | Underavg 58.3¢ | $7.3K | $6.27 | $-7.3K | 72% 2405-930 (3335) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 23¢ | $43.52 | $1.89 | -$41.62 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $3.77 | $0 | -$3.77 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
Invested
$3,113.19
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$867.54
Record
53%
1166-1032 (2198)
Invested
$166.31
Value
$416.05
PnL
+$249.74
Record
60%
3351-2263 (5614)
Invested
$170.56
Value
$274.88
PnL
+$104.32
Record
49%
7982-8322 (16304)
Invested
$187.29
Value
$240.25
PnL
+$52.96
Record
67%
23336-11741 (35077)
Invested
$80.08
Value
$203.81
PnL
+$123.73
Record
55%
8305-6697 (15002)
Invested
$7,311.41
Value
$6.27
PnL
$-7.3K
Record
72%
2405-930 (3335)
Invested
$43.52
Value
$1.89
PnL
-$41.62
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.77
Value
$0
PnL
-$3.77
Record
53%
4646-4187 (8833)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.