1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 5.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 77¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7

Over23¢Under77¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$2.58

Smart Money Entry

76.8¢ → 77¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over23%

Under77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,424

Combined PnL+$1.76

Over3 traders

Total Value$82.36

Total Shares358

Combined PnL-$4.34

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 76.7¢	$938.62	$942.16	+$3.55	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 76¢	$294.75	$314.5	+$6.9	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
└ Under leg	Underavg 76¢	$242.52	$245.71	+$3.91
└ Over leg	Overavg 22¢	$65.8	$68.79	+$2.99
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 79.2¢	$305.89	$294.25	-$0.89	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
└ Under leg	Underavg 79.2¢	$240.59	$233.99	+$8.12
└ Over leg	Overavg 26.4¢	$69.27	$60.26	-$9
SE sentrio	Underavg 77.6¢	$169.84	$169.35	-$1.79	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$50.82	$53.13	-$3.47	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 23.9¢	$15.54	$14.97	-$0.58	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Overavg 23.5¢	$14.56	$14.26	-$0.3	46% 8770-10463 (19233)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$938.62

Value

$942.16

PnL

+$3.55

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$294.75

Value

$314.5

PnL

+$6.9

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

Both legs:

Under$242.5276¢+$3.91

Over$65.822¢+$2.99

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$305.89

Value

$294.25

PnL

-$0.89

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Both legs:

Under$240.5979.2¢+$8.12

Over$69.2726.4¢-$9

sentrio

Under

Invested

$169.84

Value

$169.35

PnL

-$1.79

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50.82

Value

$53.13

PnL

-$3.47

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.54

Value

$14.97

PnL

-$0.58

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.56

Value

$14.26

PnL

-$0.3

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.