1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 0.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 98¢ · $377 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
$377.23
$24.94
98.5¢ → 98.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SE sentrio | Overavg 98.5¢ | $221.3 | $221.3 | -$0 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 1.2¢ | $82.19 | $106.8 | +$24.61 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 98.2¢ | $28.48 | $28.57 | +$0.09 | 54% 10453-8773 (19226) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 1.6¢ | $11.31 | $10.77 | -$0.54 | 49% 14983-15895 (30878) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 98.4¢ | $102 | $8 | +$1 | 48% 62396-67251 (129647) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 1.7¢ | $2.01 | $1.8 | -$0.21 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
Invested
$221.3
Value
$221.3
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$82.19
Value
$106.8
PnL
+$24.61
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$28.48
Value
$28.57
PnL
+$0.09
Record
54%
10453-8773 (19226)
Invested
$11.31
Value
$10.77
PnL
-$0.54
Record
49%
14983-15895 (30878)
Invested
$102
Value
$8
PnL
+$1
Record
48%
62396-67251 (129647)
Invested
$2.01
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$0.21
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.