Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold 1. FSV Mainz 05 (36%) · 1. FSV Mainz 05 at 64¢ · $846 held · ended Nov 7

FC Bayern München36¢1. FSV Mainz 0564¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

1. FSV Mainz 05

Consensus Traders

1. FSV Mainz 05 36%

Total Value

$846.06

Combined PnL

-$1.6

Smart Money Entry

65.6¢ → 64¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

Neutral1. FSV Mainz 05 at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1. FSV Mainz 05

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FC Bayern München36%

1. FSV Mainz 0564%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

1. FSV Mainz 054 traders

Total Value$430.58

Total Shares683

Combined PnL-$9.62

FC Bayern München7 traders

Total Value$415.48

Total Shares1,144

Combined PnL+$8.02

1. FSV Mainz 05 — 36%FC Bayern München — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on 1. FSV Mainz 05. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on 1. FSV Mainz 05) and the top 1000 (10 on FC Bayern München) disagree here.

whale1. FSV Mainz 05 50% · 4

Aligned

ctr1. FSV Mainz 05 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-picked1. FSV Mainz 05 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000FC Bayern München 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	1. FSV Mainz 05avg 66¢	$331.86	$316.8	-$7.51	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
VE VenusianCTR	FC Bayern Münchenavg 34¢	$261.33	$265.17	+$3.85	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
0xheavy888<$100	1. FSV Mainz 05avg 63¢	$59.28	$59.75	+$0.47	56% 8223-6528 (14751)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	1. FSV Mainz 05avg 66¢	$50	$47.73	-$2.27	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
nigiri99CTR<$100	FC Bayern Münchenavg 35.1¢	$45.31	$46.44	+$1.13	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	FC Bayern Münchenavg 34.7¢	$36.84	$38.27	+$1.42	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	FC Bayern Münchenavg 33¢	$27.58	$30.1	+$2.11	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	FC Bayern Münchenavg 35.1¢	$17.56	$18	-$0.75	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	FC Bayern Münchenavg 34¢	$10.59	$11.23	+$0.64	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	1. FSV Mainz 05avg 66¢	$6.6	$6.3	-$0.3	52% 9018-8169 (17187)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	FC Bayern Münchenavg 38.2¢	$6.64	$6.27	-$0.38	33% 1194-2378 (3572)

VeryLucky888

1. FSV Mainz 05

Invested

$331.86

Value

$316.8

PnL

-$7.51

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

VenusianCTR

FC Bayern München

Invested

$261.33

Value

$265.17

PnL

+$3.85

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

0xheavy888<$100

1. FSV Mainz 05

Invested

$59.28

Value

$59.75

PnL

+$0.47

Record

56%

8223-6528 (14751)

GoalLineGhost<$100

1. FSV Mainz 05

Invested

$50

Value

$47.73

PnL

-$2.27

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

nigiri99CTR<$100

FC Bayern München

Invested

$45.31

Value

$46.44

PnL

+$1.13

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

FC Bayern München

Invested

$36.84

Value

$38.27

PnL

+$1.42

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

FC Bayern München

Invested

$27.58

Value

$30.1

PnL

+$2.11

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

FC Bayern München

Invested

$17.56

Value

$18

PnL

-$0.75

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

sentrioCTR<$100

FC Bayern München

Invested

$10.59

Value

$11.23

PnL

+$0.64

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

ameisgoat11<$100

1. FSV Mainz 05

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$0.3

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

FC Bayern München

Invested

$6.64

Value

$6.27

PnL

-$0.38

Record

33%

1194-2378 (3572)

Research grade

Neutral1. FSV Mainz 05 at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1. FSV Mainz 05

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on 1. FSV Mainz 05. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on 1. FSV Mainz 05) and the top 1000 (10 on FC Bayern München) disagree here.

whale1. FSV Mainz 05 50% · 4

Aligned

ctr1. FSV Mainz 05 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-picked1. FSV Mainz 05 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000FC Bayern München 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 1. FSV Mainz 05 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.