Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$5.2

Smart Money Entry

86.3¢ → 96.3¢

+12% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,615

Combined PnL+$22.76

Yes4 traders

Total Value$96.85

Total Shares876

Combined PnL-$17.57

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 86¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$6.43	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 86.6¢	$439.21	$436.16	-$3.05	50% 21550-21844 (43394)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 87¢	$298.48	$308.77	+$10.29	52% 14650-13314 (27964)
PT PT-S7	Noavg 87¢	$281.88	$289.98	+$8.1	49% 3280-3447 (6727)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Noavg 86.6¢	$173.13	$161.56	-$17.68	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
└ No leg	Noavg 86.6¢	$120.29	$125.7	-$0.69
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14¢	$52.84	$35.86	-$16.98
GC GC-P	Noavg 85¢	$127.57	$128.31	+$0.74	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$88.28	$71.3	-$16.98	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$16.52	$15.34	-$0.59	48% 7449-7982 (15431)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$8.71	$8.71	+$0	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 86¢	$6.14	$6.39	+$0.25	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$1.49	$1.49	-$0	58% 47503-34297 (81800)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,105.64

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$6.43

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$439.21

Value

$436.16

PnL

-$3.05

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$298.48

Value

$308.77

PnL

+$10.29

Record

52%

14650-13314 (27964)

PT-S7

Invested

$281.88

Value

$289.98

PnL

+$8.1

Record

49%

3280-3447 (6727)

VenusianARB<$100

Invested

$173.13

Value

$161.56

PnL

-$17.68

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

Both legs:

No$120.2986.6¢-$0.69

Yes$52.8414¢-$16.98

GC-P

Invested

$127.57

Value

$128.31

PnL

+$0.74

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.28

Value

$71.3

PnL

-$16.98

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.52

Value

$15.34

PnL

-$0.59

Record

48%

7449-7982 (15431)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.71

Value

$8.71

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$6.14

Value

$6.39

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.49

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.4%

96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.