1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 64¢ · $838 held · ends Nov 7

Yes64¢No36¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$837.61

Combined PnL

$5.48

Smart Money Entry

65.5¢ → 63.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$520.5

Total Shares820

Combined PnL-$9.2

No6 traders

Total Value$317.11

Total Shares858

Combined PnL+$14.68

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 65.6¢	$492	$476.25	-$8.25	58% 47475-34259 (81734)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 33.4¢	$125.63	$139.19	+$13.56	51% 27051-25620 (52671)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 37.2¢	$113.2	$112.74	+$1.52	49% 1777-1875 (3652)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 37.2¢	$34.95	$34.81	-$0.14	48% 1756-1884 (3640)
38 38791873984189<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$32	$31.75	-$0.25	48% 62379-67237 (129616)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$14.89	$14.7	-$0.19	64% 10178-5715 (15893)
DV dv-pm<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$13.2	$12.5	-$0.7	48% 3364-3589 (6953)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$8.53	$8.77	+$0.24	50% 26383-26006 (52389)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 38.2¢	$7.22	$6.91	-$0.32	49% 1821-1900 (3721)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$492

Value

$476.25

PnL

-$8.25

Record

58%

47475-34259 (81734)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$125.63

Value

$139.19

PnL

+$13.56

Record

51%

27051-25620 (52671)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$113.2

Value

$112.74

PnL

+$1.52

Record

49%

1777-1875 (3652)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$34.95

Value

$34.81

PnL

-$0.14

Record

48%

1756-1884 (3640)

38791873984189<$100

Yes

Invested

$32

Value

$31.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

48%

62379-67237 (129616)

NM-PCTR<$100

Invested

$14.89

Value

$14.7

PnL

-$0.19

Record

64%

10178-5715 (15893)

dv-pm<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.2

Value

$12.5

PnL

-$0.7

Record

48%

3364-3589 (6953)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$8.53

Value

$8.77

PnL

+$0.24

Record

50%

26383-26006 (52389)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$7.22

Value

$6.91

PnL

-$0.32

Record

49%

1821-1900 (3721)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.