Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold RB Leipzig, while the market favors FC Augsburg (54%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold RB Leipzig (50%) · RB Leipzig at 46¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

RB Leipzig46¢FC Augsburg54¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

RB Leipzig

Consensus Traders

RB Leipzig 50%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$106.55

Smart Money Entry

48.2¢ → 46¢

-4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralRB Leipzig at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

RB Leipzig

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors FC Augsburg 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

RB Leipzig46%

FC Augsburg54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

RB Leipzig3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,589

Combined PnL-$77.29

FC Augsburg3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,952

Combined PnL-$29.27

RB Leipzig — 50%FC Augsburg — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on RB Leipzig. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on RB Leipzig) and the top 1000 (5 on FC Augsburg) disagree here.

whaleRB Leipzig 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrRB Leipzig 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedRB Leipzig 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000FC Augsburg 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	RB Leipzigavg 48.2¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$78.48	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
FL Flaznorp	FC Augsburgavg 53¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$23.98	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
SE sentrio	FC Augsburgavg 53¢	$304.92	$299.59	-$5.34	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	RB Leipzigavg 45¢	$35.75	$36.55	+$1.19	53% 16963-15085 (32048)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	RB Leipzigavg 46¢	$6.9	$6.9	+$0	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	FC Augsburgavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.6	+$0.05	52% 9018-8169 (17187)

nigiri99CTR

RB Leipzig

Invested

$1,686.18

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$78.48

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

Flaznorp

FC Augsburg

Invested

$1,273.67

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$23.98

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

sentrio

FC Augsburg

Invested

$304.92

Value

$299.59

PnL

-$5.34

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

CannaeCTR<$100

RB Leipzig

Invested

$35.75

Value

$36.55

PnL

+$1.19

Record

53%

16963-15085 (32048)

Pan9XCTR<$100

RB Leipzig

Invested

$6.9

Value

$6.9

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

ameisgoat11<$100

FC Augsburg

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

Research grade

NeutralRB Leipzig at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

RB Leipzig

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors FC Augsburg 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on RB Leipzig. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on RB Leipzig) and the top 1000 (5 on FC Augsburg) disagree here.

whaleRB Leipzig 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrRB Leipzig 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedRB Leipzig 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000FC Augsburg 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that RB Leipzig wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.