Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
RB Leipzig vs. FC Augsburg: 1st Half O/U 0.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $174 held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 50%
$173.88
$1.8
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 17.7¢ | $27.59 | $76.35 | +$48.76 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 83¢ | $75.99 | $46.69 | -$29.3 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 88¢ | $38.79 | $44.06 | +$5.27 | 53% 62321-54560 (116881) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 83¢ | $10.89 | $6.69 | -$4.2 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 15.4¢ | $17.62 | $0.06 | -$17.56 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
 6kke1tCTR<$100 | Underavg 2¢ | $1.21 | $0.03 | -$1.18 | 46% 905-1067 (1972) |
Invested
$27.59
Value
$76.35
PnL
+$48.76
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$75.99
Value
$46.69
PnL
-$29.3
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
RN1<$100Invested
$38.79
Value
$44.06
PnL
+$5.27
Record
53%
62321-54560 (116881)
Invested
$10.89
Value
$6.69
PnL
-$4.2
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$17.62
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$17.56
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
6kke1tCTR<$100Invested
$1.21
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.18
Record
46%
905-1067 (1972)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.