Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-11-08?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 48¢ · $927 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$926.86
$7.21
47¢ → 48¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $453.18 | $449.92 | +$1.52 | 51% 26884-25495 (52379) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 53¢ | $344.5 | $338 | -$6.5 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 45.6¢ | $108.68 | $111.92 | +$8.02 | |
DV dv-pmCTR | Noavg 47¢ | $222.31 | $227.04 | +$4.73 | 48% 3363-3589 (6952) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 47¢ | $247.73 | $118.91 | +$2.48 | 64% 10131-5689 (15820) |
GC GC-PCTR | Noavg 46.8¢ | $102.82 | $103.18 | +$0.36 | 64% 10152-5754 (15906) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $26.5 | $26 | -$0.5 | 48% 62085-66960 (129045) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 52.2¢ | $1.66 | $1.81 | +$0.14 | 58% 47334-34134 (81468) |
Invested
$453.18
Value
$449.92
PnL
+$1.52
Record
51%
26884-25495 (52379)
Both legs:
Invested
$222.31
Value
$227.04
PnL
+$4.73
Record
48%
3363-3589 (6952)
Invested
$247.73
Value
$118.91
PnL
+$2.48
Record
64%
10131-5689 (15820)
Invested
$102.82
Value
$103.18
PnL
+$0.36
Record
64%
10152-5754 (15906)
Invested
$26.5
Value
$26
PnL
-$0.5
Record
48%
62085-66960 (129045)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$1.66
Value
$1.81
PnL
+$0.14
Record
58%
47334-34134 (81468)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.