Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Borussia Mönchengladbach (22%) · Borussia Mönchengladbach at 68¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 6

Hamburger SV33¢Borussia Mönchengladbach67¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Consensus Traders

Borussia Mönchengladbach 22%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.7K

Combined PnL

$538.77

Smart Money Entry

81¢ → 67.5¢

-17% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralBorussia Mönchengladbach at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Borussia Mönchengladbach

2 of 9 top traders (22%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hamburger SV33%

Borussia Mönchengladbach68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Borussia Mönchengladbach2 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares13,271

Combined PnL-$66.32

Hamburger SV7 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares12,942

Combined PnL+$605.09

Borussia Mönchengladbach — 22%Hamburger SV — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Borussia Mönchengladbach. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Borussia Mönchengladbach) and the top 1000 (8 on Hamburger SV) disagree here.

whaleBorussia Mönchengladbach 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpBorussia Mönchengladbach 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHamburger SV 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedBorussia Mönchengladbach 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hamburger SV 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FA fakeky	Borussia Mönchengladbachavg 81¢	$10.7K	$10.7K	-$66.32	72% 49-19 (68)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Borussia Mönchengladbachavg 74.8¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$207.97	50% 28618-28449 (57067)
└ Borussia Mönchengladbach leg	Borussia Mönchengladbachavg 74.8¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$192.64
└ Hamburger SV leg	Hamburger SVavg 19.2¢	$535.51	$936.13	+$400.61
FL FlaznorpCTR	Hamburger SVavg 19.1¢	$1.3K	$1.9K	+$602.78	51% 26332-24957 (51289)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Hamburger SVavg 19¢	$508.26	$508.26	-$0	49% 14855-15647 (30502)
HI hi774cCTR	Hamburger SVavg 19¢	$458	$458	+$12.05	46% 5257-6101 (11358)
SE sentrioCTR	Hamburger SVavg 19¢	$227.04	$227.04	-$0	50% 26114-25775 (51889)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Hamburger SVavg 28.9¢	$247.75	$143.89	-$0.86	48% 61940-66801 (128741)
└ Hamburger SV leg	Hamburger SVavg 28.9¢	$93.19	$107.87	+$36.37
└ Borussia Mönchengladbach leg	Borussia Mönchengladbachavg 79.4¢	$43	$36.02	-$37.23
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Hamburger SVavg 20¢	$120	$114	-$6	51% 1987-1921 (3908)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Hamburger SVavg 35¢	$87.5	$83.75	-$3.75	55% 3659-3019 (6678)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Hamburger SVavg 32.8¢	$82.08	$75.85	-$5.23	54% 10097-8479 (18576)
└ Hamburger SV leg	Hamburger SVavg 32.8¢	$48.29	$49.25	+$0.32
└ Borussia Mönchengladbach leg	Borussia Mönchengladbachavg 80.4¢	$32.15	$26.6	-$5.55
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Hamburger SVavg 19¢	$67.38	$67.38	-$0	50% 37972-37225 (75197)
CA Cannae<$100	Borussia Mönchengladbachavg 80¢	$4	$4	+$0	53% 16941-15068 (32009)

fakeky

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Invested

$10,745.69

Value

$10.7K

PnL

-$66.32

Record

72%

49-19 (68)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Invested

$2,267.09

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$207.97

Record

50%

28618-28449 (57067)

Both legs:

Borussia Mönchengladbach$1,731.5874.8¢-$192.64

Hamburger SV$535.5119.2¢+$400.61

FlaznorpCTR

Hamburger SV

Invested

$1,259.94

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$602.78

Record

51%

26332-24957 (51289)

LuckyLooCTR

Hamburger SV

Invested

$508.26

Value

$508.26

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

14855-15647 (30502)

hi774cCTR

Hamburger SV

Invested

$458

Value

$458

PnL

+$12.05

Record

46%

5257-6101 (11358)

sentrioCTR

Hamburger SV

Invested

$227.04

Value

$227.04

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

26114-25775 (51889)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Hamburger SV

Invested

$247.75

Value

$143.89

PnL

-$0.86

Record

48%

61940-66801 (128741)

Both legs:

Hamburger SV$93.1928.9¢+$36.37

Borussia Mönchengladbach$4379.4¢-$37.23

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Hamburger SV

Invested

$120

Value

$114

PnL

-$6

Record

51%

1987-1921 (3908)

Anon455CTR<$100

Hamburger SV

Invested

$87.5

Value

$83.75

PnL

-$3.75

Record

55%

3659-3019 (6678)

Pan9XARB<$100

Hamburger SV

Invested

$82.08

Value

$75.85

PnL

-$5.23

Record

54%

10097-8479 (18576)

Both legs:

Hamburger SV$48.2932.8¢+$0.32

Borussia Mönchengladbach$32.1580.4¢-$5.55

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Hamburger SV

Invested

$67.38

Value

$67.38

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

37972-37225 (75197)

Cannae<$100

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

16941-15068 (32009)

Research grade

NeutralBorussia Mönchengladbach at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Borussia Mönchengladbach

2 of 9 top traders (22%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Borussia Mönchengladbach. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Borussia Mönchengladbach) and the top 1000 (8 on Hamburger SV) disagree here.

whaleBorussia Mönchengladbach 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpBorussia Mönchengladbach 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHamburger SV 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedBorussia Mönchengladbach 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hamburger SV 75% · 8

Diverging

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Borussia Mönchengladbach wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.