TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 4.5

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 67¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 8

Over34¢Under66¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 25%

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 66.5¢

+18% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over34%

Under67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares9,535

Combined PnL+$961.15

Over9 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares5,004

Combined PnL+$117.07

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 56.4¢	$6.2K	$7.2K	+$961.05	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 21.6¢	$620.96	$621	+$0.04	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 36.3¢	$639.87	$588.31	-$51.56	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 20¢	$500	$167.5	+$67.5	46% 30568-35672 (66240)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 27.5¢	$137.5	$167.5	+$30	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 20.4¢	$275	$103.13	+$47.13	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
PA Pan9XCTR	Overavg 21.1¢	$137	$54.12	+$25.22	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$20	$18.61	-$1.39	65% 25411-13605 (39016)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 77¢	$3.25	$3.33	+$0.08	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 66¢	$3.3	$3.33	+$0.03	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$1.7	$1.68	-$0.02	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$0.31	$0.48	+$0.17	48% 8324-8883 (17207)

RN1

Under

Invested

$6,204.44

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$961.05

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$620.96

Value

$621

PnL

+$0.04

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$639.87

Value

$588.31

PnL

-$51.56

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$167.5

PnL

+$67.5

Record

46%

30568-35672 (66240)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$137.5

Value

$167.5

PnL

+$30

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$275

Value

$103.13

PnL

+$47.13

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Pan9XCTR

Over

Invested

$137

Value

$54.12

PnL

+$25.22

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$18.61

PnL

-$1.39

Record

65%

25411-13605 (39016)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.33

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.33

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.68

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

OddstormCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.48

PnL

+$0.17

Record

48%

8324-8883 (17207)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.