Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (63%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 3.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 38¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 8

Over63¢Under37¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.3K

Combined PnL

-$143.09

Smart Money Entry

42.4¢ → 37.5¢

-12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Over 63%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over63%

Under38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares8,687

Combined PnL-$412.05

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,457

Combined PnL+$268.97

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 46.9¢	$5.9K	$5.6K	-$283.07	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.9¢	$4.7K	$3.7K	-$930.19
└ Over leg	Overavg 40.7¢	$1.2K	$1.9K	+$647.11
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 49.5¢	$4.2K	$4.0K	-$298.44	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.5¢	$2.9K	$2.2K	-$641.23
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.1¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$342.79
RN1CTR	Underavg 40.9¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$157.68	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 41¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$100.6	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
MA MadridTime	Overavg 41¢	$494.92	$742.38	+$247.46	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
HI hi774c	Overavg 39¢	$601.51	$617.2	+$15.69	46% 5617-6532 (12149)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 58¢	$596.5	$444.65	-$151.84	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
└ Under leg	Underavg 58¢	$532.1	$344.03	-$188.07
└ Over leg	Overavg 40¢	$64.4	$100.63	+$36.22
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 48.7¢	$280.08	$307.53	+$40.05	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.7¢	$154.87	$198.78	+$41.9
└ Under leg	Underavg 38.1¢	$110.6	$108.75	-$1.85
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 58¢	$435	$281.25	-$153.75	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
SE sentrio	Overavg 42¢	$2.75	$105.69	+$2.56	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Overavg 47.8¢	$82.54	$92.31	+$12.76	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.8¢	$53.34	$69.81	+$16.46
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.9¢	$26.95	$22.5	-$3.7
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 41¢	$7.8	$11.89	+$4.09	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
dips.<$100	Overavg 71¢	$6.6	$5.76	-$0.84	46% 12092-14003 (26095)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$1.9	$1.88	-$0.02	48% 2117-2339 (4456)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$5,857.73

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$283.07

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

Both legs:

Under$4,650.5346.9¢-$930.19

Over$1,207.240.7¢+$647.11

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$4,249.62

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$298.44

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

Both legs:

Under$2,885.6749.5¢-$641.23

Over$1,363.9549.1¢+$342.79

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$1,969.36

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$157.68

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$1,452.34

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$100.6

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

MadridTime

Over

Invested

$494.92

Value

$742.38

PnL

+$247.46

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$601.51

Value

$617.2

PnL

+$15.69

Record

46%

5617-6532 (12149)

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$596.5

Value

$444.65

PnL

-$151.84

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

Both legs:

Under$532.158¢-$188.07

Over$64.440¢+$36.22

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$280.08

Value

$307.53

PnL

+$40.05

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Both legs:

Over$154.8748.7¢+$41.9

Under$110.638.1¢-$1.85

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$435

Value

$281.25

PnL

-$153.75

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

sentrio

Over

Invested

$2.75

Value

$105.69

PnL

+$2.56

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

Pan9XARB<$100

Over

Invested

$82.54

Value

$92.31

PnL

+$12.76

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Both legs:

Over$53.3447.8¢+$16.46

Under$26.9544.9¢-$3.7

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$7.8

Value

$11.89

PnL

+$4.09

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$6.6

Value

$5.76

PnL

-$0.84

Record

46%

12092-14003 (26095)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.88

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 38%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Over 63%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.