Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold FC Schalke 04, while the market favors TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (51%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold FC Schalke 04 (50%) · FC Schalke 04 at 50¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim51¢FC Schalke 0449¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FC Schalke 04

Consensus Traders

FC Schalke 04 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$725.5

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 49.5¢

-30% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralFC Schalke 04 at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FC Schalke 04

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim51%

FC Schalke 0450%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FC Schalke 044 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,525

Combined PnL-$953.41

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim4 traders

Total Value$870.93

Total Shares1,738

Combined PnL+$227.91

FC Schalke 04 — 50%TSG 1899 Hoffenheim — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	FC Schalke 04avg 81¢	$2.7K	$1.8K	-$953.73	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
FL FlaznorpCTR	FC Schalke 04avg 49.3¢	$540.44	$542.24	+$1.8	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
RN1	TSG 1899 Hoffenheimavg 48¢	$468.33	$492.72	+$24.39	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	FC Schalke 04avg 65.4¢	$424.41	$423.48	+$1.89	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
└ TSG 1899 Hoffenheim leg	TSG 1899 Hoffenheimavg 34.3¢	$146.86	$216.4	+$69.53
└ FC Schalke 04 leg	FC Schalke 04avg 65.4¢	$273.62	$207.09	-$67.64
VE Venusian	TSG 1899 Hoffenheimavg 23¢	$169.21	$372.02	+$202.81	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
AN Anon455CTR	FC Schalke 04avg 50¢	$126.85	$125.66	-$1.2	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	FC Schalke 04avg 69.3¢	$150.8	$86.16	-$20.92	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
└ TSG 1899 Hoffenheim leg	TSG 1899 Hoffenheimavg 38.5¢	$37.39	$49.03	+$8.66
└ FC Schalke 04 leg	FC Schalke 04avg 69.3¢	$52.01	$37.13	-$29.58
SE sentrioCTR<$100	FC Schalke 04avg 50¢	$27.99	$27.72	-$0.28	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
LI Limousin<$100	TSG 1899 Hoffenheimavg 19¢	$4.31	$4.82	+$0.51	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
LI LightParadox<$100	TSG 1899 Hoffenheimavg 21¢	$5.57	$1.37	+$0.2	48% 2081-2289 (4370)

GoalLineGhostCTR

FC Schalke 04

Invested

$2,729.36

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$953.73

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

FlaznorpCTR

FC Schalke 04

Invested

$540.44

Value

$542.24

PnL

+$1.8

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

RN1

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Invested

$468.33

Value

$492.72

PnL

+$24.39

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

38791873984189ARB<$100

FC Schalke 04

Invested

$424.41

Value

$423.48

PnL

+$1.89

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Both legs:

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim$146.8634.3¢+$69.53

FC Schalke 04$273.6265.4¢-$67.64

Venusian

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Invested

$169.21

Value

$372.02

PnL

+$202.81

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

Anon455CTR

FC Schalke 04

Invested

$126.85

Value

$125.66

PnL

-$1.2

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

Pan9XARB<$100

FC Schalke 04

Invested

$150.8

Value

$86.16

PnL

-$20.92

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Both legs:

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim$37.3938.5¢+$8.66

FC Schalke 04$52.0169.3¢-$29.58

sentrioCTR<$100

FC Schalke 04

Invested

$27.99

Value

$27.72

PnL

-$0.28

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

Limousin<$100

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Invested

$4.31

Value

$4.82

PnL

+$0.51

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

LightParadox<$100

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Invested

$5.57

Value

$1.37

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

Research grade

NeutralFC Schalke 04 at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

FC Schalke 04

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FC Schalke 04 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.