Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-11-08?
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 61¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 22%
$9.6K
-$36.41
60.3¢ → 60.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123 | Yesavg 60.6¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | -$3.1 | 52% 1665-1556 (3221) |
 Stickman22 | Yesavg 60¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$20 | 51% 1739-1648 (3387) |
DV dv-pmCTR | Noavg 40¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$16.79 | 48% 3364-3589 (6953) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 40.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$16.39 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 39.4¢ | $482.33 | $483.45 | +$1.12 | 58% 47486-34282 (81768) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Noavg 41.2¢ | $451.3 | $432.68 | -$18.62 | 50% 21541-21839 (43380) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $84.69 | $83.63 | -$1.06 | 64% 10181-5719 (15900) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $84.69 | $83.63 | -$1.06 | 64% 10178-5767 (15945) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Noavg 41.2¢ | $12.36 | $11.85 | -$0.51 | 52% 9014-8167 (17181) |
Invested
$3,438.8
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$3.1
Record
52%
1665-1556 (3221)
Stickman22Invested
$2,399.99
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$20
Record
51%
1739-1648 (3387)
Invested
$1,343.1
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$16.79
Record
48%
3364-3589 (6953)
Invested
$1,341.62
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$16.39
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$482.33
Value
$483.45
PnL
+$1.12
Record
58%
47486-34282 (81768)
Invested
$451.3
Value
$432.68
PnL
-$18.62
Record
50%
21541-21839 (43380)
Invested
$84.69
Value
$83.63
PnL
-$1.06
Record
64%
10181-5719 (15900)
Invested
$84.69
Value
$83.63
PnL
-$1.06
Record
64%
10178-5767 (15945)
Invested
$12.36
Value
$11.85
PnL
-$0.51
Record
52%
9014-8167 (17181)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.