Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-11-08?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 88¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 8

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

-$14.66

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 87.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,366

Combined PnL-$11.61

Yes2 traders

Total Value$594.24

Total Shares4,654

Combined PnL-$3.05

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LimousinARB<$100	Noavg 88¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$23.41	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
└ No leg	Noavg 88¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$20.76
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$44.16
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 88¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$15	67% 2892-1409 (4301)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Noavg 88¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$4.75	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
└ No leg	Noavg 88¢	$973.83	$968.3	-$5.53
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12¢	$246.81	$257.1	+$10.28
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$475.01	$456.74	-$18.27	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 87.1¢	$301.63	$318.07	+$16.45	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
└ No leg	Noavg 87.1¢	$177.51	$178.37	+$0.86
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 11.1¢	$124.12	$139.71	+$15.59
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 86.5¢	$156.21	$158.59	+$2.38	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 11¢	$122.29	$137.5	+$15.21	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 88¢	$64.01	$59.25	+$1.24	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Noavg 88¢	$43.12	$42.88	-$0.24	45% 3029-3730 (6759)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 86¢	$41.96	$41.96	-$0	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Noavg 86¢	$37.41	$37.41	+$0	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 88¢	$10	$10	-$0	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 85.6¢	$4.82	$4.84	+$0.02	53% 17085-15197 (32282)

LimousinARB<$100

Invested

$4,713.54

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$23.41

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Both legs:

No$3,653.5988¢-$20.76

Yes$1,059.9512¢+$44.16

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,640

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$15

Record

67%

2892-1409 (4301)

Anon455ARB<$100

Invested

$1,220.64

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$4.75

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

Both legs:

Invested

$475.01

Value

$456.74

PnL

-$18.27

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$301.63

Value

$318.07

PnL

+$16.45

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

Both legs:

No$177.5187.1¢+$0.86

Yes$124.1211.1¢+$15.59

Flaznorp

Invested

$156.21

Value

$158.59

PnL

+$2.38

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

NM-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$122.29

Value

$137.5

PnL

+$15.21

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$64.01

Value

$59.25

PnL

+$1.24

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Invested

$43.12

Value

$42.88

PnL

-$0.24

Record

45%

3029-3730 (6759)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$41.96

Value

$41.96

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

darkumbreon88<$100

Invested

$37.41

Value

$37.41

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$4.82

Value

$4.84

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

17085-15197 (32282)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.