SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 91¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 8

Over10¢Under90¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.2K

Combined PnL

$5.6K

Smart Money Entry

65.3¢ → 90.5¢

+39% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$20.7K

Total Shares22,726

Combined PnL+$5.6K

Over5 traders

Total Value$148.28

Total Shares507

Combined PnL-$4.87

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 66.3¢	$8.6K	$11.7K	+$3.1K	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 63.5¢	$5.5K	$7.6K	+$2.1K	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Underavg 65.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$6	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
└ Under leg	Underavg 65.3¢	$783.96	$810	+$26
└ Over leg	Overavg 35¢	$280	$260	-$20
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 67.8¢	$780.77	$1.1K	+$284.12	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 65¢	$654	$347.03	+$6.07	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ Under leg	Underavg 65¢	$260	$270	+$10
└ Over leg	Overavg 34.2¢	$80.96	$77.03	-$3.93
AN Anon455	Underavg 65¢	$162.5	$168.75	+$6.25	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 34¢	$400	$130	-$6	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 65.3¢	$52	$28.23	+$0.55	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$30.11	$9.79	-$0.45	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$2.62	$4.97	+$2.35	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 63¢	$3.35	$3.38	+$0.03	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$2.6	$1.9	-$0.7	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$5	$1.63	-$0.08	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$8,609.21

Value

$11.7K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$5,512.27

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,064

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$6

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

Both legs:

Under$783.9665.3¢+$26

Over$28035¢-$20

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$780.77

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$284.12

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$654

Value

$347.03

PnL

+$6.07

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

Under$26065¢+$10

Over$80.9634.2¢-$3.93

Anon455

Under

Invested

$162.5

Value

$168.75

PnL

+$6.25

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$400

Value

$130

PnL

-$6

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$52

Value

$28.23

PnL

+$0.55

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.11

Value

$9.79

PnL

-$0.45

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.62

Value

$4.97

PnL

+$2.35

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.38

PnL

+$0.03

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.6

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.7

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$1.63

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 91%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.