SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$-4.1K

Smart Money Entry

77.6¢ → 99.5¢

+28% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares7,979

Combined PnL-$262.49

Under7 traders

Total Value$197.7

Total Shares9,989

Combined PnL$-3.8K

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Overavg 81¢	$4.6K	$4.4K	-$170.69	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 65.9¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$256.05	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
AN Anon455	Overavg 66.8¢	$379.33	$564.66	+$185.34	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 79.8¢	$518.92	$373	-$9.12	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$2.8K	$121.22	$-2.7K	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$47.13	$93.79	+$46.66
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$2.7K	$27.43	$-2.7K
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 27.7¢	$55.43	$112.91	+$57.48	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 74.2¢	$196.34	$110.21	-$13.16	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 41.5¢	$3.6K	$43.01	$-3.5K	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 27.5¢	$11.97	$21.95	+$9.99	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
dips.<$100	Overavg 98¢	$14.7	$14.93	+$0.23	46% 12026-13917 (25943)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$67.2	$14.45	+$1.68	46% 5609-6517 (12126)
RO Rocky31<$100	Overavg 80¢	$4	$4.98	+$0.97	75% 2050-688 (2738)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 35.2¢	$259.38	$3.68	-$255.7	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 29.7¢	$84.09	$1.41	-$82.67	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 34.3¢	$19.24	$0.28	-$18.96	48% 2032-2230 (4262)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$4,608.89

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$170.69

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,474.64

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$256.05

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$379.33

Value

$564.66

PnL

+$185.34

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$518.92

Value

$373

PnL

-$9.12

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,788.37

Value

$121.22

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Both legs:

Over$47.1350¢+$46.66

Under$2,741.2450¢$-2.7K

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$55.43

Value

$112.91

PnL

+$57.48

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$196.34

Value

$110.21

PnL

-$13.16

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$3,572.97

Value

$43.01

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.97

Value

$21.95

PnL

+$9.99

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$14.7

Value

$14.93

PnL

+$0.23

Record

46%

12026-13917 (25943)

hi774cCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.2

Value

$14.45

PnL

+$1.68

Record

46%

5609-6517 (12126)

Rocky31<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.97

Record

75%

2050-688 (2738)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$259.38

Value

$3.68

PnL

-$255.7

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$84.09

Value

$1.41

PnL

-$82.67

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.24

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$18.96

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.